MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0416
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1107 PM EDT MON AUG 03 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE, NORTHEAST NM, AND VICINITY 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 040306Z - 040706Z
 
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 2" COULD
CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OVER SATURATED SOILS.

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MATURE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
WITH EXPANDING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE, WITH LINGERING
ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHEASTERNMOST NM AND SOUTHEASTERNMOST CO. 
RADAR ESTIMATES SHOW HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 2" WITHIN THIS
REGION, WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 KTS, PARALLEL TO
THE 1000-500 HPA THICKNESS PATTERN BUT AT THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
FORWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE VECTORS.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ACROSS THE REGION ARE 1.50-1.75" PER GPS INFORMATION.  INFLOW AT
850 HPA IS 20-25 KTS PER VAD WIND PROFILES, SOMEWHAT BELOW THE
CLOUD BASES IN THE REGION.  MUCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG LIE WITHIN
THE AREA PER SPC MESOANALYSES.

RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 850 HPA INFLOW SHOULD INCREASE AND VEER
OVERNIGHT, WHICH SUGGESTS CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS THE
STORMS MOVE INTO A MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT.  HOWEVER, THIS SUPPLY
OF MUCAPE SHOULD ONLY PROVIDE FUEL TO ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THIS REGION FOR ANOTHER 3-4 HOURS.  WHILE OUTFLOW IS ADVANCING
AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION, CIN IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY, WHICH SHOULD FORCE THE CONVECTION TO REMAIN ELEVATED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  THE 18Z SSEO NEIGHBORHOOD
PROBABILITIES AGREE, SHOWING THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD EXCEEDANCE
PROBABILITIES OVER 50% THROUGH 05Z, BEFORE THEY DROP UNDER 30% BY
07Z.  HOURLY RAIN RATES SHOULD RANGE UP TO 2" UNTIL THEN.  THE
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATES LOCAL AMOUNTS IN THE 2-4"
RANGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  SOME CELL TRAINING/MERGERS
WITH CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM NORTHEAST NM IS POSSIBLE.  FLASH
FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER SATURATED SOILS.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...OUN...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...

LAT...LON   37090314 36770192 36390051 36210008 36029995 
            35480025 35030080 34730158 34960239 35420329 
            36070427 36140436 36460470 36680443 37020376