MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0418
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
204 AM EDT TUE AUG 04 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST NE & NORTHERN MO 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 040603Z - 041203Z
 
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP WITHIN AN AREA OF
SATURATED SOILS.  FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST KS AND CENTRAL MO
IS ACTING AS THE FOCUS FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION AS OF LATE, WITH A
SMALL CLUSTER IN NORTHEAST MO SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION.  THE STORMS ARE FORMING 90-100 NM NORTHEAST OF THE
BOUNDARY DUE TO OVERNIGHT CIN AND MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ~20
KTS.  INFLOW AT 850 HPA IS 20 KTS PER VAD WIND PROFILES, WHICH IS
ADVECTING IN MUCAPES IN THE 1000-3000 J/KG RANGE FROM NORTHEAST KS
AND NORTHWEST MO.  PER A BRIEFING FROM SAB/NESDIS, THERE IS
EVIDENCE ON SATELLITE OF THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A JET STREAK
MOVING INTO THE REGION, ENHANCING LIFT, AND SATELLITE DERIVED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ON THE RISE DURING THE PAST COUPLE
HOURS, WITH VALUES IN THE 1.50-1.75" RANGE.

AS THE JET STREAK MOVES BY, CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND THEN SHIFT
EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 15-20 KTS PER FORWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE
VECTORS, CAUSING CELL TRAINING, WITH ISSUES SPREADING FROM
WEST-NORTHWEST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH TIME.  AROUND 12Z, INFLOW
INTO THE REGION REDUCES, WITH THE HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT
WANING THEREAFTER.  THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS LOCAL AMOUNTS IN
THE 2-3" RANGE, WHICH COULD FALL QUICKLY.  HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO
1.75" ARE POSSIBLE PER THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE.  CONSIDERING RECENT
RAINS ACROSS THE REGION, SOILS ARE SATURATES.  FLASH FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE.   

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...LSX...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   41209533 40289175 38919108 39469383 40289692 
            40899703 
!