MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0420
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
822 AM EDT TUE AUG 04 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST NEB...NORTHERN MO 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 041222Z - 041500Z
 
SUMMARY...HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEB INTO NORTHERN
MO WILL GRADUALLY BE TAPERING OFF THROUGH 15Z...WITH A
CORRESPONDING DECREASE IN THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WITH TIME. 

DISCUSSION...RADAR SHOWED THAT SCATTERED CELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WERE LINGERING FROM FAR SOUTHEAST NEB
INTO NORTHERN MO AS OF 12Z...WITH ONE HOUR RAINFALL RATES STILL
AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR FROM THE STRONGEST CONVECTION. THIS HEAVY
RAINFALL IS OCCURRING IN AN AREA THAT RECEIVED SOME HEAVY RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT.  AS A RESULT...THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS. 

THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE DIMINISHING AS A JET STREAK PULLS AWAY FROM THE
AREA.  IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLOUD TOPS WERE WARMING AS OF
1130Z SUGGESTING THAT THE WEAKENING PROCESS WAS ALREADY UNDERWAY. 
THE IDEA OF WEAKENING CONVECTION WAS ADVERTISED BY THE HI RES
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS...INCLUDING THE RAP/HRRR/SSEO MEAN.

AS A RESULT...THINK THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LOCALIZED THREAT
FOR FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHICH ALREADY RECEIVED
HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT...BEFORE THE THREAT DECREASES LATER THIS
MORNING.  

BANN

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...LSX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   41379590 41339434 40709286 40319167 39499109 
            39189102 39439208 40269526 40739681 41309694