MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0422
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
423 PM EDT TUE AUG 04 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SOUTHERN NE/NORTHERN KS/FAR WESTERN MO... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 042022Z - 050022Z
 
SUMMARY...CONVECTION GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED IN THE
VICNITY OF A WEST-EAST BAROCLINIC ZONE. EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING IF THE DEVELOPING STORMS CAN LATCH ONTO THE FRONT. GIVEN
FFG VALUES ARE MODESTLY HIGH...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE KEPT AT
POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED A
RATHER ROBUST AREA OF CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NE/FAR
NORTHWEST KS. FARTHER EAST...MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE TOWERS HAVE FIRED
AMIDST SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING WITH A GENERAL GENESIS REGION
ALONG THE ANALYZED FRONT. THE 19Z RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATED
PLENTY OF BUOYANCY IN THE ATMOSPHERE WITH 1500 TO 2500 J/KG OF
SURFACE-BASED CAPE ALONG THE NE/KS BORDER. WHILE CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN KS...THERE ARE STILL PLENTY OF
AREAS OF CLEARING TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION.
FURTHER...CELL MOTIONS SHOULD BE RATHER SLOW WITH A GRADUAL
POLEWARD DRIFT. 19Z RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK FLOW FROM THE
SURFACE TO 500-MB. THE COMBINATION OF SLOW CELL MOTIONS WITH A
STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
INDICATES THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE SCALLOPED REGION.
LOCAL RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING THROUGH 00Z.

THERE IS A REASONABLY STRONG SIGNAL IN THE CAMS...PARTICULARLY
WITH THE 12Z ARW/NMM AND THEIR PARALLEL RUNS ALONG WITH THE 19Z
HRRR. THE LATTER SOLUTION TRENDED TOWARD A MORE PERSISTENT FOCUS
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KS WITH POTENTIAL
REGENERATION TO THE SOUTH.

PLEASE VIEW THE LATEST SPENES FROM NESDIS/SAB FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.


RUBIN-OSTER

ATTN...WFO...EAX...GID...GLD...ICT...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   40339963 40259742 40099618 39719502 38989450 
            38579483 38499564 38769709 39380047 40170075