MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0424
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
758 AM EDT WED AUG 05 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN KS...NORTHEAST OK...SOUTHWEST
MO...NORTHWEST AR 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 051157Z - 051600Z
 
SUMMARY...FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
GIVEN THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER...A CONTINUED UNSTABLE AIRMASS
AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL FLOW...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS AND
SOUTHERN MO THIS MORNING. A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NE/KS BORDER IS HELPING PROVIDE
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE AREA IS ALSO SEEING STRONG LOW
TO MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG AN ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH
30-35 KTS OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 850 MB. THE REGION ALSO
CONTINUES TO BE MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. THESE FACTORS HAVE COME TOGETHER TO ALLOW
FOR CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
KS. AND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2"...AND A
RELATIVELY THIN CAPE PROFILE...HEAVY RAINFALL RATES ARE LIKELY.

MEAN STORM LAYER WINDS SUGGEST INDIVIDUAL STORM MOTIONS OFF TO THE
EAST SOUTHEAST AROUND 30 KTS. HOWEVER CURRENT OBSERVED MOTIONS ARE
MORE OFF TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST...MORE INTO THE STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET AND MORE CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE BACKWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI
VECTORS. MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE THUS APPEAR TO BE A
BIT TOO FAR NORTH WITH THIS AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. THE 0Z NSSL
WRF AND 09Z HRRR SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
CONVECTION AND ITS MOVEMENT THROUGH THE MORNING...PUTTING THE QPF
MAXIMUM ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS. ALTHOUGH EVEN THESE ARE PROBABLY TOO
FAR NORTH...WITH CONVECTION LIKELY DROPPING INTO NORTHEAST OK.

BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE THE TRAINING THREAT GIVEN THE BACKBUILDING
NATURE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY SEEN ON RADAR ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KS..WHICH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OK...SOUTHWEST MO AND NORTHWEST
AR. RAINFALL RATES ARE CURRENTLY MAXING AROUND 1.5-2" AN
HOUR...WHICH IS BELOW FFG. BUT CONTINUED TRAINING MAY INCREASE THE
FLOOD THREAT THROUGH THE MORNING AS SOILS SATURATE.


CHENARD

ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...ICT...LZK...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   39019817 38839726 38579601 38309532 38069468 
            37709329 36889216 36089239 35599399 35719510 
            36169666 36939789 37729852 38569887 38809888