MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0436
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
331 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN KS...FAR NORTHERN OK 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 100728Z - 101225Z
 
SUMMARY...SLOW-MOVING CONVECTION WITH INTENSE RAINFALL RATES
SHOULD PROMOTE SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AND IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS OVER
SOUTHERN KS AND POSSIBLY INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN OK. A WEAK VORT
MOVING EAST KS IS INTERACTING WITH A FRONTAL ZONE AND AXIS OF
CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WILL BE FACILITATING THE EXPANSION OF
CONVECTION.

THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH PWATS
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES AND MUCAPE VALUES GENERALLY 2000 J/KG TO 2500
J/KG. THE LATEST CIRA LAYERED PW ANALYSIS ALSO CONFIRMS AN AXIS OF
CONCENTRATED MOISTURE IN ESPECIALLY THE 700MB TO 500MB LAYER. THIS
WILL AGAIN HELP SUPPORT HIGHER RAINFALL EFFICIENCY WITH INTENSE
RATES WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE CORES AS A RESULT.

THE 06Z HRRR SUGGESTS SLOW CELL MOVEMENT ALONG WITH SOME W/E
ORIENTED CELL TRAINING AND CELL MERGERS THROUGH 12Z. RAINFALL
RATES WILL LIKELY BE EXCEEDING 2 INCHES/HR...AND GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING AND CELL MERGERS...LOCALLY VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND THIS SHOULD DRIVE AT LEAST A
LOCALIZED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...ICT...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...

LAT...LON   38319761 38249689 38169633 38049581 37749605 
            37409608 37189586 37059524 36989456 36869480 
            36659677 36399801 36169865 36069921 36169965 
            36369999 36830014 37129992 37409949 37989907 
            38249844