MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0439
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
706 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN COLORADO...NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST KANSAS...OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...NORTHWEST TEXAS
PANHANDLE 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 102305Z - 110505Z
 
SUMMARY...INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WITH THREAT OF MERGERS
AND INCREASING RAINFALL RATES FOR POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING

DISCUSSION...OBS/VWP NETWORK AND VISIBLE IMAGERY LOOP CONTINUES TO
SHOW A BROAD FIELD OF CU WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF ELEVATED
MOISTURE/EASTERN TROPICAL CONNECTION THAT HAS REMAINED ACROSS THE
PLAINS NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. THIS CHANNEL
IS REPRESENTATIVE FOR TOTAL PWATS IN THE 1.25-1.5" RANGE IN SE
CO/SW KS/TX-OK PANHANDLE. 15-20 KT INFLOW HAS PROVIDED GOOD
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FOR INITIAL CONVECTION. HOWEVER IT HAS BEEN
MORE ISOLATED AND A BIT OUTFLOW DOMINANT ... LIKELY DUE TO A BIT
BROADER CHANNEL OF EASTERLY FLOW AND AS SUCH LOWER BOUNDARY
LAYER/MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAN INITIAL FORECAST.  STILL THIS
OUTFLOW AND MOISTENING OF THE ENVIRONMENT WILL AID IN INCREASED
CONVERGENCE/MERGERS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS INCREASING THE FLASH
FLOODING THREAT WHILE EVOLVING INTO A LARGER MCS.
INFLUENCES FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET CROSSING THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ALONG WITH CURVATURE AT THE PEAK OF THE RIDGE AXIS
SHOULD HELP TO INCREASE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND EVACUATE TO AID
UPSCALE GROWTH OF THE MCS FURTHER NORTH. WHILE FURTHER SOUTH
INFLUENCES FROM INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM COMPLEX MOVING OUT
OF LINCOLN COUNTY NM INTO GUADALUPE SHOULD HELP TO CONSOLIDATE THE
MCS ACROSS NE NM/SE CO/OK PANHANDLES BY 04-06Z.  MODEL WIND FIELDS
ALSO SUPPORT A VEERING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND SE CO/OK
PANHANDLE REGION FOR INCREASED CONVERGENCE THAT SHOULD REMAIN
ACTIVE THROUGH 06Z TO PROVIDE CONTINUED FLUX OF MOISTURE AND BEST
INSTABILITIES THAT REMAIN IN THE CHANNEL ALONG THE OK/KS BORDER. 


GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...BOU...DDC...GLD...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   39870379 39450317 38670274 38040143 36630094 
            36140134 35560220 35050361 34180534 35510586 
            36690451 38580491 39480463