Graphic for MPD #0450
 
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0450
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
928 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN COLORADO INTO WRN KANSAS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 170127Z - 170527Z
 
SUMMARY...A SHORT TERM THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING CENTERED ACROSS
THE CO/KS BORDER WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAIN RATES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST IN THE 1-HR TIME FRAME...BUT SOME
REPEATING RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH OVERRUNNING OF AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY.

DISCUSSION...AT 01Z...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS OBSERVED TO BE
SINKING SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN WRN KANSAS AT ABOUT 15-20
KTS. A LINE OF INTENSE RAINFALL CONTAINING RATES OF 1.5 TO 2.5
IN/HR WAS COINCIDENT WITH THE BOUNDARY PER KGLD DUAL POL
ESTIMATES...WHILE A FEW CELLS WERE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY IN FAR WRN KANSAS. VAD WIND PLOTS FROM KAMA AND KDDC
SHOWED 850 MB FLOW FROM THE SOUTH AT 20-25 KTS...WHICH IS
ESTIMATED TO BE PRESENT IN FAR SWRN KANSAS FEEDING INTO THE SWD
SINKING OUTFLOW. RECENT SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED A MAXIMUM IN
MLCAPE OF ROUGHLY 1500 J/KG IN FAR SWRN KANSAS...WHICH IS WEST OF
THE OBSERVED KDDC O0Z RAOB LOCATED IN DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR.

STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS PRESENT
AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT OVER THE MPD THREAT AREA THROUGH
06Z...WHICH IS HELPING TO SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS ON THE WRN EDGE
OF THE OUTFLOW. MEAN STORM MOTIONS ARE VERY WEAK ACROSS THE
COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER...LESS THAN 10 KTS WITH VARIABLE
DIRECTIONS. A CONTINUED FEED OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY INTO THE
SOUTHWARD SINKING OUTFLOW MAY ALLOW FOR CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN
THROUGH 06Z...WITH FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS COMING AS 1 HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IS ONLY 1-2 IN/HR. RECENT HI-RES MODELS DO NOT SEEM
TO BE HANDLING THE ONGOING MESOSCALE DETAILS VERY WELL...SO
CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE REDUCED FOR A LONGER TERM THREAT.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...BOU...DDC...GLD...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   39230014 38159990 37460075 37060207 37110326 
            37460410 38320449 38810433 39190363 39210170 
            


Last Updated: 928 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015