MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 455
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
902 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN OK...SOUTHEASTERN KS...WESTERN MO 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 190101Z - 190601Z
 
SUMMARY...SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS ARE SHOWING AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS
NEAR A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.  SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ALSO
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
IS NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF A POTENT MID-LATITUDE SURFACE CYCLONE.
 LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATES 850MB INFLOW ON THE ORDER OF
30 KNOTS OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA, ALONG WITH PW VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2.0
INCHES AND MLCAPE OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG.  

BACK-BUILDING OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED ON RADAR OVER THE PAST
HOUR AND THUS INCREASING THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING.  INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES COOLING CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES. 
GIVEN THE HIGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA, THE RISK SHOULD BE MORE LOCALIZED.  GUIDANCE
VALUES ARE LOWER OVER KANSAS AND MISSOURI, AND RAINFALL RATES ON
THE ORDER OF 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR MAY CAUSE FLOODING ISSUES WITH
THE MOST PERSISTENT CONVECTION.  ISOLATED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO
4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE AS SUGGESTED BY SOME OF THE NEAR-TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE.

HAMRICK

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   39319404 39209341 38729272 38079226 37439242 
            36879297 36529369 36099486 35499617 35189728 
            35049880 35799884 36599796 37239720 37849646 
            38319572 39099463