MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0463
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
639 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN KS/NORTHEASTERN OK/NORTHWESTERN
AR/SOUTHWESTERN MO... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 221038Z - 221408Z
 
SUMMARY...PERSISTENT CONVECTION FOCUSING ALONG AN ELEVATED
BOUNDARY HAS PRODUCED HOURLY RATES IN THE 1 TO 1.50 INCH RANGE.
EXPECT LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ISSUES AS LONG AS THIS TRAINING
EVENT CONTINUES. CONFIDENCE IN DURATION IS LOW GIVEN CAMS HAVE
STRUGGLED WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX.

DISCUSSION...A DISTINCT CYCLONIC CURL NOTED IN THE RADAR/SATELLITE
IMAGERY OVER THE EASTERN BORDER OF KS/OK IS THE REFLECTION OF A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVED TOWARD THE OZARKS REGION. A WELL-DEFINED
DRY SLOT IS EVIDENT IN THIS IMAGERY AS WELL PUNCHING INTO FAR
NORTHEASTERN OK WHILE A STEADY BAND OF TRAINING CONVECTION HAS
FOCUSED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN OK BACK TOWARD SOUTH-CENTRAL KS.
THE 10Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DID NOT SHOW ANY NOTABLE SURFACE TROUGH
OR CONVERGENCE AXIS SUGGESTING THIS BOUNDARY IS ROOTED ABOVE THE
SURFACE LAYER. GENTLE LIFT OVERRUNNING THE ANALYZED SURFACE
BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH A WELL DEFINED LLJ NOTED ON THE LOCAL VWP
SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN THE BACK END OF THIS COMPLEX ANOTHER FEW
HOURS. IT TRULY IS UNCERTAIN HOW LONG THIS WILL PERSIST GIVEN
HOURLY UPDATE CAMS HAVE STRUGGLED AND SHOWN POOR RUN-TO-RUN
CONTINUITY. HOWEVER...THIS COMPLEX HAS PROVEN TO BE AN EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCER WITH 1 TO 1.50 INCH HOURLY RATES SUGGESTED IN
THE DUAL-POL PRECIPITATION ALGORITHM. CLOSEST GROUND TRUTH WAS
AROUND 0.75 TO 1 INCHES IN THE OK MESONET ALTHOUGH SOME SITES WERE
NOT REPORTING WITHIN THE BANDING. FFG VALUES ARE A BIT LOWER OVER
THIS REGION AND SHOULD BE DECREASING AS HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO
FALL EARLY THIS MORNING.

RUBIN-OSTER

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LZK...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   38309453 38229334 37759245 36849219 36359269 
            36039377 35589557 35959717 36649802 37599821 
            37919776 37639733 37339692 37269630 38069550