MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0464
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1014 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TO EASTERN OK/NORTHWESTERN AR/FAR
SOUTHWESTERN MO... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 221413Z - 221713Z
 
SUMMARY...AN ONGOING COMPLEX OF HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO AFFECT
SECTIONS OF CENTRAL TO EASTERN OK. THIS TRAINING BAND OF
CONVECTION ALREADY HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOOD
CONDITIONS. WHILE A GENERAL SOUTHWARD MOTION HAS
COMMENCED...LOCALIZED HOURLY RAINFALL RATES APPROACHING 2 INCHES
IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...IN THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE CONVECTION WITHIN THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE ACROSS THE
OK/KS/MO BORDER REGION. MEANWHILE...THE NW-SE ORIENTED AXIS OF
TRAINING CONVECTION HAS FINALLY LATCHED OFF THE ELEVATED BOUNDARY
WITH THUNDERSTORMS NOSING SOUTHWARD. WHILE THE WESTERN FLANK OF
THE LINE HAS BEEN MORE PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE...THE EASTERN FLANK
HAS SHOWN TO BE SLOWER MOVING WITH HOURLY RAINFALL RATES IN THE
1.50 TO 2 INCH ALONG THE ENTIRE EXTENT OF THE LINE. THIS SHOULD
PROVE TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
ISSUES...PARTICULARLY IF ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENT HANGS UP BRIEFLY.
THIS SYSTEM ALREADY HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING SUCH CONDITIONS
WITH 3 TO 4 FEET OF WATER REPORTED IN KAY COUNTY OK WHERE 5.25
INCHES OF RAIN WAS MEASURED.

TO THE SOUTH OF THE COMPLEX...A SW-NE ORIENTED AXIS OF ACAS WAS
NOTED WHICH COULD BE THE PRE-CURSORS TO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS SOUTHERN TO SOUTHEASTERN OK. THE 10Z EXPERIMENTAL HRRR
SEEMED TO LIKE THIS REGION FOR DEVELOPMENT ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE A
BIT QUICK BASED ON THE SIMULATED RADAR REFLECTIVITY.
OVERALL...ANTICIPATE ANOTHER FEW HOURS OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE
REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. THIS CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAS PROVEN TO LAST LONGER THAN MANY OF THE EARLIER
CAMS WERE SHOWING. SO IT IS DIFFICULT TO REALLY SUPPORT ANY
INDIVIDUAL CAM AT THIS MOMENT.


RUBIN-OSTER

ATTN...WFO...LZK...OUN...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...

LAT...LON   36899470 36449379 36019359 35729367 35489381 
            35139430 34439544 34459674 35209730 36349723 
            36669570