MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0466
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
157 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KANSAS/NERN OKLAHOMA INTO WRN MISSOURI 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 230557Z - 231157Z
 
SUMMARY...THREE HOURLY RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-3 INCHES MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN KANSAS...NERN OKLAHOMA INTO
SWRN MISSOURI BY 12Z. THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS APPEAR TO BE OVER
SECTIONS OF NRN OKLAHOMA WHERE 2-4 INCHES FELL SATURDAY MORNING.

DISCUSSION...AT 05Z...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS PLACED A COLD FRONT
FROM NERN KANSAS INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WITH CONVECTION ALONG
AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY COVERING THE MAJORITY OF THE
ERN HALF OF KANSAS. 00Z RAOBS FROM KLMN TO KSGF INDICATED STEEP
700-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 6.3 TO 8.3 C/KM SUPPORTING ROUGHLY 2000
J/KG OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE MPD THREAT AREA. AS THE
COLD FRONT CONTINUES SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...IT IS
FORECAST TO REACH THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF KANSAS BY 12Z.
MEANWHILE...INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER CO-LOCATED
WITH THE KANSAS CONVECTION WILL TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD AS
WELL...HELPING TO SUPPORT ELEVATED CONVECTION ROOTED IN THE
850-700 MB LAYER.

INDIVIDUAL STORM MOTIONS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 20-25 KTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...SIMILAR TO THE 850-700 MB
FLOW...HELPING TO SUPPORT REPEATING CONVECTION FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FORECAST TO RISE INTO
THE 1.50 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN OKLAHOMA WHERE 2-4
INCHES OF RAINFALL FELL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...LOWERING FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES TO 2-3 INCHES IN 3 HOURS. THIS SETUP AND THE
EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS ARE SUPPORTED IN THE LATEST 00Z
CAMS...WITH THE 00Z NSSL WRF AND 00Z NAM CONEST APPEARING TO HAVE
THE BEST HANDLE ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. THIS FORECAST HAS BEEN
COORDINATED WITH SAB...PLEASE SEE LATEST SPENES ISSUED 0545Z FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...ICT...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   38619589 38329395 36969314 36039470 36099722 
            37109869 38189807