MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0468
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
257 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM...FAR WEST TX 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 241900Z - 250000Z
 
SUMMARY...CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN
NM AND NEARBY FAR WEST TX COULD PRODUCE LOCAL FLASH FLOODING
CONCERNS...DUE MAINLY TO SLOW CELL MOTIONS

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CENTRAL NM...IN AN AREA OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...AS
WELL AS 1000+ MLCAPE VALUES. AN AXIS OF 1.40 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER (WHICH IS ABOUT TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN)
STRETCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN NM...AND THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW (SOUTHEAST
AROUND 10 KNOTS) SHOULD CONTINUE TO FEED MOISTURE INTO THE
DEVELOPING CONVECTION.

NEARLY ALL HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE PRODUCES 1-2 INCH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST NM INTO FAR WEST TX IN THE
24/21Z TO 25/00Z TIME FRAME. THE COMBINATION OF SLOW CELL MOTIONS
(DUE TO CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAIN) AND RELATIVELY LOW ONE HOUR
FLASH FLOOD (AS LOW AS AN INCH OR LESS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NM)
COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.  

THE DEGREE OF FLASH FLOODING THREAT IS PREDICATED ON CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE...AS WELL AS CELL MOTIONS. IF THE CELL MOTIONS REMAIN
SLOW...THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING INCREASES. IF THE STORMS
BECOME MORE OUTFLOW DOMINATED...THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING
DECREASES.

IN ANY EVENT...THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
ACTIVITY OVER NM/FAR WEST TX COULD START TO WANE AFTER 25/00Z...AS
THE PRECIPITABLE WATER AXIS SHIFTS TO THE WEST. THE SHIFT IN THE
MOISTURE AXIS COULD PUSH THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT FURTHER WEST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   36630475 36490428 35990389 35140389 34360399 
            34100402 33250407 32380422 31760453 31350536 
            31530600 31910626 32110637 32090631 32980685 
            34200648 35590600 35700589 36240551