MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0486
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
805 PM EDT TUE SEP 08 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN OK...NORTHWESTERN AR 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 082300Z - 090500Z
 
SUMMARY...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN A FOCUS FOR DEVELOPING CONVECTION AS LOW LEVEL INFLOW
INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WAVE.

DISCUSSION...LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 2+ INCH PWS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA...SUPPORTED IN PART BY THE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AFFORDED BY AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE
REGION.  SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL INFLOW AHEAD OF A WAVE SLOWLY
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT 2+ INCH PWS
ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  THIS DEEP MOISTURE
POOL INTERACTING WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND FAVORABLE
UPPER JET DYNAMICS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
ACROSS THE REGION.

THE MORE RECENT HI-RES GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE 21Z HRRR AND THE
12Z HRW-ARW/NMMB AND THE NSSL WRF ALL GENERALLY AGREE ON A BROAD
AREA OF 0.5 INCH OR MORE ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3-INCHES THROUGH 05Z.

PEREIRA

ATTN...WFO...LZK...OUN...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...

LAT...LON   36579469 36579321 36309232 36009247 35679304 
            35359368 35079426 34889478 34759582 34849638 
            35339645 35719674 36079667 36209643 36419604