Graphic for MPD #0490
 
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0490
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1117 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN KS...WESTERN MO 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 110300Z - 110630Z
 
SUMMARY...VERY STRONG CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH
EASTERN KS AND WILL CONTINUE TO FOSTER FLASH FLOODING LOCALLY AS
IT MOVES INTO WESTERN MO.

DISCUSSION...A STRONG MCS WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS AND SOME
OVERSHOOTING TOPS CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN KS AND IS NOW
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN MO. THE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER
MO VALLEY...AND IT IS INTERACTING WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS JUST AHEAD OF IT.

OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE MCS SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES THROUGH WESTERN MO AND ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASINGLY
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT SHORT-TERM RAINFALL RATES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE RATHER HIGH...REACHING UP TO 2 INCHES/HR. THESE
RATES WILL BE MAXIMIZED IN THE VICINITY OF OVERSHOOTING TOPS.

THE HIRES GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR...AND THE 12Z ARW/12Z NMMB
SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE LOCALLY UNDERDONE WITH THEIR QPF COMPARED
TO SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF LOCALLY 2 TO 3 INCHES CAN
BE EXPECTED. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS A LOCALIZED THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING...AND ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF URBAN AREAS.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   39679474 39579328 39019241 38219227 37469304 
            37069452 37089581 37199688 37739713 38319653 
            38699627 39359575 


Last Updated: 1117 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2015