MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0497
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1112 PM EDT THU SEP 17 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST MISSOURI...EXT NE KANSAS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 180301Z - 180701Z

...CORRECTION TO ADD MISSOURI TO LAST SENTENCE...
 
SUMMARY...SMALL LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT GIVEN HIGH RATES AND
MOIST ENVIRONMENT. 

DISCUSSION...MERGING SUPERCELLS IN EXTREME NORTHEAST KANSAS REMAIN
IN A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT TO REMAIN A LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOOD THREAT.  NATIONAL THETA-E MAP SHOWS MAXIMA AT THE
INTERSECTION OF THE 35-40KT SSWLY LLJ AND THE CLUSTER OF -65C
TOPPED CELLS.  IR LOOP SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTION DEVELOPED
NEAR/ALONG A SUBTLE KINK IN THE COLD FRONT ALLOWING FOR INCREASED
MST CONVERGENCE.  NOW THAT THE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING A WEAK
COLD POOL...A PERPENDICULAR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT TRACKS INTO NW MO AND SLIGHTLY LOWER
FFG VALUES.  MOST HI-RES MODELS EITHER DID NOT DEVELOP CONVECTION
OR ARE QUICKLY WEAKENING THE CELLS...THOUGH RAP FORECASTS SHOW
MAINTAINED 30-35KT LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH 09-10Z... AND MUCAPES IN
EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG.  WITH LOW LEVEL TDS IN THE 70S AND TPWS IN
THE 1.75" RANGE...CELL EFFICIENCY SHOULD BE MAINTAINED WITH RATES
UP TO 2"/HR.  MITIGATING FACTOR MAY BE FORWARD PROGRESS OF 10-15
KTS...NOT LEADING TO EXTREME TOTALS...BUT LOCALIZED QUICK 1-2"
TOTALS POSE THREAT FOR FF OVER THE NEXT 3-4HRS ACROSS NW MISSOURI.

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   40339458 40299297 40089231 39339231 38909288 
            38939359 39109537 39619583 39959533