MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0502
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
646 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEASTERN KS...NORTHEASTERN OK...SOUTHWESTERN
MO...NORTHWESTERN AR 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 182245Z - 190445Z
 
SUMMARY...TRAINING CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS OF
2-3 INCHES. 

DISCUSSION...LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AN AXIS OF 1.9-2.1 INCHES
EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL OK INTO SOUTHEASTERN KS...WITH MUCAPE
VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG.  SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE
LOW 70S.  DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
SLOWLY FROM THE NORTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT HI PWS...ON THE
ORDER OF 1.75-2+ INCHES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  THIS MOISTURE
INTERACTING WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AXIS MAY SUPPORT
TRAINING CONVECTION...PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS.  WHILE
DIFFERING IN THE DETAILS...THE 20Z HRRR...12Z
HRW-ARW/NMMB..NSSL-WRF AND THE 18Z NAM CONEST ALL INDICATE
WIDESPREAD 0.5 INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA...WITH
LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES BY 05Z.

PEREIRA

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   37609372 36429425 35979512 35519712 36099740 
            36799617 37529472