Graphic for MPD #0502
 
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0502
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
646 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEASTERN KS...NORTHEASTERN OK...SOUTHWESTERN
MO...NORTHWESTERN AR 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 182245Z - 190445Z
 
SUMMARY...TRAINING CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS OF
2-3 INCHES. 

DISCUSSION...LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AN AXIS OF 1.9-2.1 INCHES
EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL OK INTO SOUTHEASTERN KS...WITH MUCAPE
VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG.  SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE
LOW 70S.  DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
SLOWLY FROM THE NORTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT HI PWS...ON THE
ORDER OF 1.75-2+ INCHES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  THIS MOISTURE
INTERACTING WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AXIS MAY SUPPORT
TRAINING CONVECTION...PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS.  WHILE
DIFFERING IN THE DETAILS...THE 20Z HRRR...12Z
HRW-ARW/NMMB..NSSL-WRF AND THE 18Z NAM CONEST ALL INDICATE
WIDESPREAD 0.5 INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA...WITH
LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES BY 05Z.

PEREIRA

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   37609372 36429425 35979512 35519712 36099740 
            36799617 37529472 


Last Updated: 646 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015