MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0507
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
756 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NM...FAR NORT H TX 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 230000Z - 230500Z
 
SUMMARY..CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AN INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS
EASTERN NM INTO FAR NORTH TX TAPS INCREASING MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A
FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG AN INSTABILITY
AXIS (WITH MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG) ACROSS
EASTERN NM INTO FAR NORTH TX. REGIONAL VWP SHOWED A 20 TO 25 KNOT
LOW LEVEL SOUTH SOUTHEAST FLOW...TRANSPORTING 1.25 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INTO THE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT. CLOUD
TOPS NEAR -65 C OVER EASTERN NM SHOWED THAT THE CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN...AND THE KFDX RADAR INDICATED LOCAL 1.50 INCH
PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES NEAR THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS.

HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (INCLUDING THE LATEST HRRR/RAP/12Z WRF
ARW) SHOWED THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE PERSISTING THROUGH
23/04Z...ALLOWING CONVECTION TO DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN THROUGH THAT
TIME. THE DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORTED INTO THE CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUSTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR 1-2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL IN AN HOUR OR LESS. 

THE LATEST HRRR/RAP IS NOT CURRENTLY CAPTURING THE EXTENT OF THE
CONVECTION OVER EASTERN NM WELL. THESE MODELS SHOWED MAINLY
SCATTERED CONVECTION...SO THESE SOLUTIONS MAY CONTINUE TO
UNDERFORECAST THE EXTENT OF THE CONVECTION AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...EPZ...LUB...MAF...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   37160283 36320157 34150253 33080313 32410380 
            32060451 32130506 32480559 33800576 35950456