MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0508
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
936 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN CO...WESTERN KS...SOUTHWEST NE... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 230135Z - 230600Z
 
SUMMARY...CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN CO THIS EVENING
WILL TAP DEEPENING MOISTURE IN AN UPSLOPE FLOW...POSSIBLY
RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING. 

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
CO AHEAD OF A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES CROSSING WESTERN AND CENTRAL CO.
THE AIRMASS IS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...AS 00Z SOUNDINGS AT
KABQ...KDNR AND KDDC SHOWED A LOW LEVEL CAP IN PLACE.
HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION IS TAPPING INTO THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
IN PLACE FROM NORTHEAST NM INTO SOUTHEAST CO (PER THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS). 

REGIONAL VWP SHOWED A 20 TO 25 KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTH SOUTHEAST FLOW
FROM NORTH TX ACROSS WESTERN KS...AND THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
EASTERLY ACROSS EASTERN CO. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FOCUSING 1.00 TO
1.25 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR ACROSS EASTERN CO AND NORTHWEST
KS. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR IS FUELING 1-2 INCH PER HOUR
RAINFALL RATES IN THE SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO
(PER THE KPUX RADAR). HOWEVER...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE
MID LEVELS...THESE RADAR ESTIMATES ARE LIKELY HAIL CONTAMINATED.

THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES A BIT IN THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS
EASTERN CO AND WESTERN KS...STEADILY FEEDING HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AIR INTO CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT. THE SHORT WAVE CROSSING CENTRAL
CO IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ACROSS EASTERN
CO/WESTERN KS IN THE 23/02Z TO 23/06Z TIME FAME. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
CONVECTION INCREASE IN COVERAGE. INSTABILITY COULD END UP BEING
THE LIMITING FACTOR EARLY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN KS. 

HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (INCLUDING THE LATEST HRRR/RAP/18Z
REGIONAL GEM/12Z WRF ARW/NMMB) SUGGESTS LOCAL 2 INCH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH 23/06Z...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER
SOUTHEAST CO. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD RESULT IN LOCAL FLASH
FLOODING THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...BOU...DDC...GLD...LBF...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   40900104 39770038 38240159 37310289 37310321 
            37910414 38880410 40610293