MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0529
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1205 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SE AL...SW GA..FL PANHANDLE 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 290400Z - 290800Z
 
SUMMARY...A SLOW NORTHWARD MOVING BAND OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED
HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  HOURLY
RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD
LEAD TO ADDITIONAL RUNOFF ISSUES ACROSS THIS AREA.


DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY AT 0330Z CONTINUED TO SHOW ORGANIZED
BAND OF RAIN AND HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS ACROSSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA.  THERE WERE INDICATIONS OF A WEAK MESO LOW CIRCULATION
NEAR THE FL/GA BORDER REGION LIFTING SLOWLY NEWD WITH THE HEAVIEST
RAINS NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION

CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST HOUR AND SOME OF THE
RECENT EXPERIMENTAL HRRR RUNS INDICATE A SLOW WEAKENING OF THIS
BAND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS IT MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT.  HOWEVER MOST OF THE HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE WAS NOT
HANDLING CONVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA VERY WELL AND SINCE IT
REMAINS WITHIN A ZONE OF MDTLY STRONG MOISTURE FLUX WITH WEAK EAST
TO WEST STATIONARY FRONT ACRS THE AREA TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
LIFT...WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE SYSTEM LINGER LONGER THAN
HRRR INDICATES...OR SEE ADDITIONAL STORMS ADVECT IN FROM THE NE
GULF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  IN ANY EVENT..POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
FOR POSSIBLE EXCESSIVE SHORT TERM RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. 

SULLIVAN

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   32818526 32508447 31398388 30368449 30288476 
            30278600 30708646 32688625