MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0544
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1010 PM EDT FRI OCT 02 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CAROLINA...CENT/S NORTH CAROLINA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 030209Z - 030809Z
 
SUMMARY...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY WITH 6HR TOTALS OVER 4-6" LIKELY
WITH POTENTIALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR THE COAST.

DISCUSSION...DEEP STRATOSPHERIC FOLD SEEN WELL IN STANDARD WV AS
WELL AS RGB AIR MASS OCCURRING OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO... ALLOW EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE WITH STRONG 100-110 KT
JET...WHICH WILL SUPPORT VERY STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA.  SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE HUGS THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTLINE THROUGH CAPE FEAR INTO THE OUTER BANKS OF
NC...BROAD/DEEP LOW LEVEL WITH AN EXTREME MOISTURE TONGUE PULLED
FROM THE OUTER PORTIONS OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN ARE POOLED AROUND
2.4-2.5" WITHIN TPW ANALYSIS POINTED UPP THE FRONT TOWARD KCHS.
SWIR LOOP SHOWS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS MOISTURE CHANNEL AS A
WEAK CONVERGENCE TROF INTERSECTING THE FRONT SE OF HILTON HEAD
ISLAND.  THIS NOW FOCUSES THE STRONGEST/DEEPEST CONVECTION THAT
WILL DRIFT ASHORE OVER CENTRAL SC COAST SHIFTING EVER SO SLOWLY
WEST...AS THE TROF CONTINUES TO SWING AROUND THE BASE.  CONVECTION
HAS BEEN VERY EFFICIENT AND LIKELY TO BE VERY SIMILAR INTERMITTENT
 3-4"/HR RATES SEEN NEAR NORTH MYRTLE BEACH/CALABASH AREA OVER THE
LAST 6HRS...WITH 24HR TOTALS IN THE 10- 14" SEEN IN MESONET AND
PERSONAL WEATHER STATIONS/CWOP.  THIS REMAINS A POTENTIAL SCENARIO
OVER THE NEXT 6-12HRS PARTICULARLY NEAR COAST AND NEAR THE TRIPLE
POINT OF THESE INTERSECTING BOUNDARIES.

FURTHER DOWNSTREAM...INSTABILITIES BECOME EXHAUSTED BUT BROADSCALE
ASCENT REMAINS TO SUPPORT BROAD SHIELD PRECIPITATION WITH RATES OF
1.0-1.5"/HR ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SC/S CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. 
STRENGTHENING AND BACKING 7H FLOW AND EASTERLY 85H FLOW WILL ALLOW
FOR FASTER WESTWARD PUSH OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LINE
TOWARD THE FOOTHILLS OF THE NC APPALACHIANS.  

THE RECENT HRRR RUNS APPEAR TO HAVE THE AXIS WELL HANDLED FROM
KCHS TO KCLT INCLUDING 6HR TOTALS OF 4-6" THOUGH APPEARS TO OVER
DO THE AMOUNTS ACROSS NC.  THE NSSL WRF ALSO APPEARS TO HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE LOCATION AND AMOUNTS...THOUGH MAY UNDER DO THE
AMOUNTS AT THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AXIS IN NC. 

AT THIS TIME...SERIOUS FLOODING CONDITIONS MAY EXIST ACROSS URBAN
CENTERS NEAR/AROUND CHARLESTON SC OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS -60
TO -70C COOLING CLOUD TOPS ARE IN THE VICINITY WITH A LOOK OF
TRAINING TO POTENTIALLY OCCUR.  

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...GSP...ILM...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   36368105 36228020 35387961 34927922 34057884 
            33387885 33107896 32427968 32158026 32208080 
            32808125 34038183 35048198 35888165 36138136