MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0555
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
411 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN SC AND SOUTHEAST NC 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 050809Z - 051209Z
 
SUMMARY...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST OF
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH 8 AM THIS
MORNING, WITH AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

DISCUSSION...A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF HEAVY RAINFALL HAS BECOME
BETTER ESTABLISHED ON REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING,
EXTENDING FROM OFFSHORE OF WILMINGTON TO EASTERN SC.  THIS IS
RESULTING FROM INTENSE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
AN OCCLUDED LOW AND INTERACTIONS WITH A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE
COAST.  TRAINING CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS, AND IT APPEARS THAT THIS TREND COULD CONTINUE THROUGH 6 AM.
 HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A NARROW BAND OF 2 TO 4 INCH
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THIS BAND.  GIVEN THE EXTREMELY
SATUATED GROUND, IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH FOR FLASH FLOODING TO
BECOME AN ISSUE.  

HAMRICK

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   35437657 35237597 34837612 34537661 34187725 
            33797793 32867946 32728019 32928076 33438101 
            34038078 34647983 35127851 35337748