MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0560
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1243 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHER NV...NORTHERN AZ...SOUTHERN UTAH 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 060442Z - 060842Z
 
SUMMARY...SCATTERED HEAVY CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN NV,
NORTHWEST AZ, AND SOUTHWEST UT.  WITH HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 1"
POSSIBLE, LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS REMAIN
POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...SUSTAINED MOISTURE ADVECTION AROUND THE SOUTHEAST
SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CA IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION NEAR THE BORDER JUNCTION OF NV/AZ/UT LATE THIS EVENING.
 DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS STILL EVIDENT OVER THIS REGION, ALLOWING FOR
WIDESPREAD ASCENT.  PW VALUES PER THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS ARE
IN THE 0.75 TO 1.25 INCH RANGE. SEVERAL FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN RECENTLY ISSUED IN THIS REGION.  MUCAPES ARE IN THE 500-1000
J/KG RANGE PER SPC MESOANALYSES AND THE 00Z VEF/LAS VEGAS
SOUNDING.  RADAR ESTIMATES SHOW A BROAD AREA OF 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH OF
RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN NV AND NORTHWEST AZ, WITH SPOTTY AMOUNTS IN
THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE.

THE HI RES GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT LOCAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 1.5
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION.  THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A WIDESPREAD EVENT GIVEN
THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE TOWARDS THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. 

HAMRICK

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...GJT...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...CNRFC...

LAT...LON   37861356 37851246 37601112 37291058 36821052 
            36391082 36111127 35781212 35321306 34831400 
            34951479 35581580 36431674 36951642 37371565 
            37741475