MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0563
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
237 PM EDT WED OCT 07 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED......EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 071836Z - 080036Z
 
SUMMARY...AN UPPER LOW 

DISCUSSION...LATEST WV IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION OVER AZ IS DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST. DOWNSTREAM OVER NM,
THERE WERE SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE
BROADER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION, 
HELPING TO GENERATE LIFT ACROSS EASTERN NM. SHOWERS AND STORMS
HAVE STARTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE. 

WITH CONTINUING DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND FORECASTS SOUNDINGS FROM
THE GFS IN EASTERN NM SHOWING STEEP LAPSE RATES NEAR 7-8 DEG C/KM
AND LAYER MOISTURE NEAR 70 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO 500 MB,
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM.  
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY AN INCREASE IN THE
16Z RAP FORECAST MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES OF 1-2 KJ/KG ACROSS
EASTERN NM TO THE ADJACENT TX PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST TX. 

THE WRF NMMB AND ARW, NSSL WRF AND 16 AND 17Z HIGH RES RAPID
REFRESH SHOW CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. 
LAYER SFC-6 KM WINDS OFF THE GFS SOUNDING SHOW 
SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR 15 KT SO PREDOMINANT STORM MOTION SHOULD BE
TOWARDS THE NORTH IN NM AND THEN NORTHEAST IN TEXAS AS THE WIND
PROFILES VEER.
 
WITH GFS FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND DEEP MOISTURE, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
EXPECTED. THE HIGH RES CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SHOW CLUSTERS OF
1-2 INCHES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN LOCAL FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL WHERE TRAINING OCCURS. 

SEE STATEMENTS FROM SPC FOR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND NESDIS AND
THEIR SATELITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES THIS AFTERNOON FOR UPDATES
AS THE EVENT PROGRESSES. 

PETERSEN 

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...EPZ...LUB...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   36590362 36110261 35340254 34510255 33590302 
            32490308 31830292 31130287 30260302 29180364 
            29940601 30710695 32250715 33260633 34750606 
            35530595 36260551 36380512 36380510