MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0564
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
801 PM EDT WED OCT 07 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED......SOUTHEAST NM AND WEST TEXAS... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 080000Z - 080600Z
 
SUMMARY...SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER SOUTHEAST NM AND WEST TEXAS
SHOULD PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED MERGERS/CLUSTERS
RESULTING IN HEAVY RAINFALL AND RUNOFF PROBLEMS

DISCUSSION...LATEST WV IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION OVER AZ IS DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. DOWNSTREAM OVER
NM, THERE WERE SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE
BROADER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION, 
GENERATING LIFT ACROSS EASTERN NM INTO ADJACENT SOUTHWEST TX. 
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE OCCURRING. 

WITH CONTINUING DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
THE 18Z GFS IN SOUTHWEST TX SHOWING STEEP LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 DEG
C/KM, LAYER SFC-500 MB MOISTURE NEAR 70 PERCENT, AND 850-700 MB
MOISTURE FLUXES, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
FORM ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NM TO THE ADJACENT TX PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHWEST TX. 

THE WRF NMMB AND ARW, NSSL WRF, 21 AND 22Z HIGH RES RAPID REFRESH
SHOW CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE REGION.  LAYER
SFC-6 KM WINDS OFF THE GFS SOUNDING SHOW 
SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR 15 KT SO PREDOMINANT STORM MOTION SHOULD BE
TOWARDS THE NORTH  NORTHEAST AS THE WIND PROFILES VEER. LOCAL
VARIATIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO OUTFLOW MERGERS AND FRACTURES AND
INFLUENCES ON CELL DEVELOPMENT, WITH OCCASIONAL REDEVELOPMENT IN
THE INFLOW AXIS CAUSING REPEATING SHOWERS.
 
WITH GFS FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND DEEP MOISTURE AND DEEP POSITIVE AREA
ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED. THE
HIGH RES CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SHOW CLUSTERS OF 1-2 INCHES
EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING, RESULTING IN LOCAL FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL WHERE CELL TRAINING OCCURS.

SEE STATEMENTS FROM SPC ON THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND NESDIS
AND THEIR SPENES DISCUSSION THIS AFTERNOON FOR UPDATES AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES. 

PETERSEN 

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...EPZ...LUB...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   35460211 35290086 34480098 33080172 31510246 
            30020299 29260360 29000469 29720549 30510541 
            32300437