MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0572
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
454 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...EXTREME
SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 102045Z - 110245Z
 
SUMMARY...ADDITIONAL POCKETS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING MAY CONTINUE TO FOCUS SOME LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...LATE-DAY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME
CLEARING SKIES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA THE LAST HOUR OR SO...THUS SOME INCREASING SOLAR
INSOLATION IS UNDERWAY WHICH IS LIKELY TO DESTABILIZE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MEANWHILE...A
COMPACT MID LEVEL LOW CENTER IS APPROACHING FROM THE UPSTATE OF
SOUTH CAROLINA WHICH IS ALREADY FOCUSING SOME NEW CELLS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO EXIT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...BUT STRONGER DYNAMICS ALOFT AND STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL INTERACT WITH
SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR THERE TO BE
SOME RENEWED EXPANSION OF CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SOUTH CAROLINA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

THE CELLS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER SLOW-MOVING AND CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH/HR...AND ADDITIONAL
STORM TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES LOCALLY. GIVEN THE RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF PROBLEMS...THESE ADDITIONAL RAINS
WILL RISK PRODUCING AT LEAST SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH BY LATE EVENING AS THE
MID LEVEL LOW CENTER REACHES THE COAST AND BEGINS TO GRADUALLY
PUSH OFFSHORE.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...GSP...ILM...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   35058121 34828029 34497900 34287762 33857764 
            33247861 32797948 32738023 33028131 33638200 
            34258227 34828194