MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0573
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
641 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED......SOUTH TX... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 132240Z - 140130Z
 
SUMMARY...SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG A SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY ACROSS
FAR SOUTH TX COULD PRODUCE LOCAL FLASH FLOODING ISSUES INTO THE
EARLY EVENING.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG A SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY PUSHING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF FAR
SOUTH TX. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...ML CAPES HAVE PEAKED NEAR 3000
J/KG...IN A POOL OF 2.00+ INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR. WHILE MOST
IR TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED RECENTLY... COOLING TOPS OVER BROOKS
AND JIM HOGG COUNTY INDICATED THAT CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. 

THE ACTIVITY HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF BACKBUILDING OVER BROOKS COUNTY.
THE KBRO RADAR ONE HOUR RAINFALL ESTIMATES HAVE TOPPED 2 INCHES.
THIS COULD BE HAIL CONTAMINATED...AS THE KBRO RADAR HCA SHOWS HAIL
IN THE HEAVY RAINFALL CORES...AND RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED A
FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS. 

NONE OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS MODELING THE CURRENT
ACTIVITY WELL....BUT THE INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND THE SEA BREEZE
ACTING AS A FOCUS COULD SUPPORT A FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH AT
LEAST 01Z. AFTER THAT TIME...THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED...AND THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT SHOULD WANE.

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   27609863 27399793 26769770 26229779 26149845 
            26469924 27079950 27529949 27519948