MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0594
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
101 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NE NEW MEXICO...N TEXAS PANHANDLE...OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 220500Z - 221100Z
 
SUMMARY...ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING THREAT WITHIN LARGER MODERATE
SHIELD PRECIPITATION WITH TOTALS POSSIBLY LEADING TO PROLONGED
FLOODING CONDITIONS.

DISCUSSION...LIFTING S/W ALONG EASTERN PERIPHERY OF LARGER SCALE
UPPER LOW IS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS E NM INTO A BROADER DIFFLUENT
REGION PROVIDING INCREASED LARGER SCALE ASCENT.  ADDITIONALLY THIS
S/W AS WELL AS THE APPROACHING SPEED MAX AND ASSOCIATED PVA FROM
NEXT S/W OVER SE AZ/SW NM HAS INCREASED HEIGHT FALLS AND
STRENGTHENED LOW LEVEL JET WITH BROAD 45-55KT 850MB FLOW SEEN IN
VWP NETWORK  FROM THE BIG BEND OF TEXAS INTO SW OK.  THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS INCREASED FLOW IS DENOTED WELL IN ENHANCED IR ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.  THIS IS STRENGTHENING
FRONTOGENETICAL ISENTROPIC FORCING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
LLJ FOR VERY STRONG MOISTURE FLUX WITH INCREASING TPWS FROM 1.25"
TO 1.5" POSSIBLY REACHING 1.75" BY 12Z NEAR THE RED RIVER.  STRONG
MST CONVERGENCE AND 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPES ALONG THE INTERFACE
ARE LEADING TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH THE CAPABILITY
OF 1.5-1.75"/HR RATES...AS SEEN WITH IR TOPS NEARING -70C.  IT IS
WITHIN THESE CELLS THAT FLASH FLOODING THREAT IS HIGHEST
PARTICULARLY IF THEY TRACK ALONG SATURATED SOILS. 

RADAR AND IR IMAGERY INDICATE THE REMNANT LINE OF THE QLCS MOVING
E THROUGH THE SHIELD WITH CELLS/ELEMENTS CONTINUING TO FOCUS
ADDITIONAL CONVERGENCE FOR ENHANCED TOTALS FROM JUST W OF LBB TO
TCC TO JUST SW OF CAO.

WITH THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT TO REMAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED
FLOODING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.  CELLS WILL WEAKEN WITH NORTH
AND NNW MOVEMENT AND FADE INTO MODERATE SHIELD PRECIP AREA OF
.25-.5"/HR LEADING TO 2-3" WITHIN THE NEXT 6HRS EXCEEDING LONGER
TERM FFG. THOUGH MUCH OF THE HI-RES CAMS SUPPORT THIS...THE 12Z
NSSL-WRF HAS BEEN PARTICULARLY RELIABLE AND COMPARABLE ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA.  FOR INFORMATION FURTHER SOUTH...PLEASE REFER TO
UPCOMING MPD 595.

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...DDC...LUB...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   37010050 36989969 36499946 34869974 34220061 
            33770175 33740237 33960305 34700342 35680381 
            36370373 36930320 36980130