MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0595
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
140 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...W TEXAS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 220539Z - 221139Z
 
SUMMARY...QLCS SHIFTING EASTWARD SLOWLY WITH HIGH MOISTURE FLUX
CAPABLE OF RAINRATES IN EXCESS OF 2"/HR. 

DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX ARE ROTATING
AROUND THE SE PERIPHERY OF THE LARGER SCALE UPPER LOW OVER AZ/NM. 
THE NOSE OF THE 80-90KT 3H JET IS EDGING INTO THE FAR WESTERN TX
PANHANDLE  BECOMING HIGHLY DIFFLUENT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA AT
NEARLY 45-60 DEGREES BY THE SE PORTIONS OF NM.  THIS CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT UVV AND OUTFLOW FOR THE MATURE QLCS THAT IS CURRENTLY
PROGRESSING INTO THE LOWER CAP ROCK AND EAST OF THE PECOS RIVER. 
AT THE BASE OF THE QLCS IS A RAPIDLY EVOLVED MCV THAT WILL LIKELY
ACT AS A PIVOT FOR INCREASED CONVERGENCE AND STALLING FORWARD
PROGRESS OF THE QLCS.  THIS WILL LEAD TO A MAXIMIZED WAVE OF
INCREASED RAINRATES AND TOTALS IN THE VICINITY AS IT MIGRATES
NORTH UP THE LINE. 

HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN LOW LEVEL INFLOW TO THE QLCS
AS 850MB FLOW HAS INCREASED TO OVER 50KTS PER VWP FROM THE BIG
BEND.  THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY HAS ALLOWED TROPICAL MOISTURE TO
CHANNEL THROUGH THE TERRAIN TROUGH THE PECOS VALLEY WITH TPW
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATING 1.5" NEARING THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE QLCS IN PECOS/WARD COUNTY AND GPS SITE NEAR DEL RIO ALREADY
OVER 1.85".   THIS IS PROVIDING VERY HIGH MOISTURE FLUX AT A
NEARLY 60-75 ANGLE ALLOWING THE QLCS TO ADVANCE BUT ALSO MAKE THE
CELLS QUITE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS IN A SHORT DURATION.  IT
IS ALSO EXPECTED THAT THE LINE WILL EXPAND TOWARD THE SOUTH AS IT
PROGRESSES EAST.  HOWEVER...WITH BROAD INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT
AND DIFFLUENCE... EXPECTATION IS FOR A FAVORED ENVIRONMENT FOR
UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SW EDGE (DEVELOPING A WEDGE
APPEARANCE IN IR) WHICH SHOULD STALL THE FORWARD ADVANCE WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF TOTALS OVER 4-6" AT THE APEX OF THAT WEDGE
POTENTIALLY OVER E PECOS/UPTON OR W CROCKETT COUNTIES IN THE NEXT
6HRS OR SO.

HI-RES CAMS SUPPORT COMPOUNDED TOTALS ACROSS THE QLCS BUT LIKELY
DO NOT ACCOUNT FOR THE MCV MOVING THROUGH THE LINE NOR THE HIGHER
POSSIBILITY FOR SLOWER MOVING CELLS ON THE SW EDGE OF THE QLCS.

PLEASE REFER TO MPD 594 FOR WARM ADVECTION AREA FARTHER NORTH. 

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...EWX...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   34550066 34259955 33499970 32160038 31160088 
            30190146 29910215 30210283 31340364 32080354 
            32810331 33710293 34480207