MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0596
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
550 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...W OKLAHOMA...SW KANSAS...EXT E TEXAS PANHANDLE 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 220950Z - 221450Z
 
SUMMARY...NARROWING WINDOW IN TIME FOR VERY QUICK HIGH RATES FOR
CELLS ALONG QLCS.

DISCUSSION...MATURE QLCS WITH WELL DEFINED MCV LIFTING OUT OF THE
NE TX PANHANDLE INTO NW OKLAHOMA CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
MAINLY DRIVEN ON COLD POOL.  LOW LEVEL FLOW IS VEERING A BIT TO
BECOME ALIGNED WITH UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM 7H TO
3H...PARALLEL TO THE LINE.  THIS IS LIMITING INFLOW TO THE QLCS
NORTH OF THE RED RIVER...NOW BEING MAINLY DRIVEN BY THE FORWARD
PROPAGATION OF THE LINE ITSELF.  A MODERATE POOL OF 500 J/KG
MUCAPES STILL EXIST WITHIN THE WESTERN TWO COLUMNS OF COUNTIES IN
W OK TO SUPPORT THE QLCS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  IR TEMPS
ALREADY INDICATE WARMING TREND AS THE VIGOR OF THE UPDRAFTS WILL
LESSEN AND LIKELY BEGIN TO FRACTURE ALONG THE LINE...LEAVING MORE
DISCRETE LINES OF ENHANCED QPF.  ADDITIONALLY...LINE IS
PROGRESSING INTO AN AREA WITH BETTER GROUND CONDITIONS TO
WITHSTAND SIGNIFICANT FLOODING BROUGHT ON BY THE SQUALL LINE AND
THE POST-SQUALL MODERATE SHIELD PRECIPITATION.  HI-RES CAMS
CONTINUE TO PERFORM WELL AND GENERALLY SUGGEST 1-2" TOTALS ACROSS
W OK THOUGH ISOLATED TOTALS OVER 3" COULD BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY
IF THERE ARE A FEW PRE-SQUALL CELLS THAT DEVELOP AND MERGE WITH
THE LINE.  OVERALL THOUGH FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL BE LIMITED
MAINLY TO THE INITIAL BURST OF 1 TO 1.5" IN 15 TO 30 MINUTES WITH
THE EFFICIENT SQUALL.

NORTH OF THE MCV...WARM FRONT EXTENDS NORTHEAST WITH MODERATE WAA
FOR ISENTROPIC ASCENT OF MODERATELY MOIST PARCELS TO PRODUCE
PROLONGED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHIELD PRECIPITATION WITH UP TO .5"/HR
ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE AND SW KANSAS.  THIS COULD COMPOUND ENOUGH
OVER A LONGER DURATION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TO LEAD TO
PROLONGED FLOODING CONCERNS OVER SW KS.

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...LUB...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...

LAT...LON   37829993 37319886 36649843 35819840 34919856 
            34489886 34439955 34479975 34610007 35130025 
            35490041 36090046 36920108 37280138 37760090