MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0597
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
757 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TEXAS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 221156Z - 221556Z
 
SUMMARY...SLOW MOVING/BACKBUILDING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE EXISTING LINE.  LOCAL
RAIN RATES OF 1-2 INCHES/HR MAY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...WHILE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS A LARGE EXTENT OF WEST TX INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
OK...BELIEVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING/BACKBUILDING
CONVECTION LIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE
PLAINS OF TX...BACK INTO THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY AND THE EASTERN
BIG BEND COUNTRY.  STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TO ADVECT HIGHER PW AND UNSTABLE AIR INTO A
SLOW-MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY ESTABLISHED BY THE ONGOING
CONVECTION.  COINCIDENT WITH THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW...LATEST
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AN AXIS OF 1.5-2 INCH PWS AND 1000+ J/KG CAPE
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VLY FROM THE LOWER TX COAST TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE BOUNDARY.  GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS LOW LEVEL
INFLOW PERSISTING INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS WITH THE BOUNDARY
REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY.  MEANWHILE...STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE
AFFORDED BY THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST
ORIENTED UPPER JET STREAK EXTENDING ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE IS
EXPECTED TO PROVIDE LARGER SCALE LIFT.

THE LATEST OUTLOOK AREA WAS BASED LARGELY ON AMOUNTS PRODUCED BY
THE HRW-NMMB -- WHICH OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE...APPEARS TO THE HAVE
ONE THE BETTER HANDLES ON THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. 

PEREIRA

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   33410067 33400010 32470017 31390056 30890105 
            30370192 30360272 31110252 32000159 32790112