MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0618
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1115 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN MS...EXTREME SOUTHEAST AR...SOUTHWEST
TN...WESTERN AL 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 261514Z - 262030Z
 
SUMMARY...THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT LOOKS TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED
INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTERACTS
WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE THAT IS FORECAST TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED
WITH TIME. 

DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.  ONE AREA WHERE
RAINFALL RATES LOOK TO BE INCREASING WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN MS AND PARTS OF ADJOINING STATES.

THE HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS FROM OVERNIGHT HAVE
BEEN ADVERTISING THE FORMATION OF RAINFALL MAXIMA IN THIS AREA
WHERE A MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE FORMS AT THE SAME TIME THAT
MOIST...DEEP LAYERED SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT COPIOUS
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF INTO THE REGION.  

FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY HIGH AT THIS POINT...BUT THE
FORECAST SOUNDING PROFILES ALL SUGGEST THAT THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES RESULTING IN MORE
THAN 4 INCH TOTALS  BY MID AFTERNOON.  THAT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
LOWER FFG VALUES BY THIS AFTERNOON.  IN ADDITION...IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY FROM MID MORNING WAS SHOWING COOLING CLOUD TOPS UPSTREAM
FROM THE AREA HIGHLIGHTED IN THE MPD IN RESPONSE TO A MID LEVEL
VORT MOVING NORTHWARD.

AS A RESULT...THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON IN THIS AREA.  

BANN

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...LZK...MEG...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   35268911 35218752 34178802 33828829 33318817 
            32708788 32228919 32768988 32919155 34299100