MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0622
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
109 PM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL TX 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 301709Z - 302309Z
 
SUMMARY...A WEAK THERMAL BOUNDARY IS ACTING AS THE FOCUS FOR
OCCASIONAL SHORT TRAINING BANDS OF CONVECTION.  CONSIDERING
SATURATING SOILS, FLASH FLOODING IS CONSIDERED POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE
TX PANHANDLE, THERE HAVE BEEN OCCASIONAL SHORT TRAINING CONVECTIVE
BANDS WHERE RAIN RATES HAVE APPROACHED/BREACHED 1" AN HOUR. 
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.4-1.7" LIE ACROSS THE REGION PER
GPS INFORMATION.  LIMITED INSTABILITY, WITH POCKETS OF MUCAPE >
500 J/KG PER SPC MESOANALYSES, HAS AIDED THE LIMITED CONVECTION
NEAR A WEAK THERMAL BOUNDARY.  INFLOW AT 850 HPA IS CONVERGENT
WITHIN THIS REGION, AT SPEEDS OF 25-50 KTS PER VAD WIND PROFILES,
SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING THE MEAN 850-400 HPA WIND.

THE REGION WAS PARTIALLY SATURATED BY EARLIER RAINFALL, AND THE
THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES HAVE FALLEN IN SUIT -- DOWN
TO 1.5-2" IN THREE HOURS.  CAM GUIDANCE IN THE REGION SHOWS A
GENERAL SIGNAL FOR LOCAL AMOUNTS AROUND 2", WHICH COULD FALL
QUICKLY.  RECENT RAP RUNS INDICATE THAT INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TX THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THIS
BOUNDARY, WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 1.5". 
FLASH FLOODING IS CONSIDERED POSSIBLE.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   34129849 33599759 33009782 32039907 31969918 
            31380023 31590093 32420060 33199996 33789936