MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0628
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
320 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 310719Z - 311245Z
 
SUMMARY...RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR WILL PASS OVER SATURATES
SOILS FROM EARLIER RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL TEXAS...LEADING TO
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD PROBLEMS THROUGH 13Z. 

DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY AS OF 0645Z SHOWED TWO AXES OF
RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER CORES. THE FIRST WAS TRAINING FROM
SW TO NE...FROM ABOUT 50 MI WEST OF ACT...EXTENDING TO THE ERN
OKLAHOMA/TEXAS BORDER. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTH
OF THIS AXIS WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW OVERRUNNING AND GENERATING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS STREAMING OFF TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. A SECOND
CLUSTER TO THE SOUTH WAS MOVING EAST IN THE FORM OF A FORWARD
PROPAGATING MCS...TIED TO A MESOLOW IN SAN SABA COUNTY AT 07Z. 

THESE TWO AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EXPANDING EWD OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO...AS A CONVERGENT AXIS ALONG AN 850 MB COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST EARLY THIS MORNING. STRONG SRLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSPORT DEEP MOISTURE NWD OVER SATURATED SOILS ALONG I-35
BETWEEN AUSTIN AND DALLAS WITH ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING LIKELY IN
THE SHORT TERM. IN ADDITION...THE RAP HAS BEEN FORECASTING A 130+
KT UPPER JET CORE TO STRENGTHEN OVER CNTRL OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING
WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION SETTING UP OVER THE ERN
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER BY ABOUT 12Z. BY 13Z...THE RAINFALL SHOULD
BE CLOSE TO ADVANCING MOSTLY OUT OF MPD THREAT AREA FROM NEAR
SHREVEPORT TOWARD SERN TEXAS.

GIVEN THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
TO SWRN LOUISIANA...RAINFALL RATES SHOULD STAY SOMEWHaT
TEMPERED...PERHAPS 1-2 IN/HR. GIVEN SATURATED SOILS HOWEVER...ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL CAUSE RUNOFF ISSUES WITH AN ADDITIONAL
2-4 INCHES EXPECTED BY 13Z.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...SHV...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   34239486 33599355 32449448 30609646 29289815 
            29509959 31149886 32669744