MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0632
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
130 PM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX/SOUTHWEST LA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 311729Z - 312059Z
 
SUMMARY...A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR MATAGORDA BAY SHOULD
YIELD ANOTHER FEW HOURS OF HEAVY RAIN ISSUES IN SOUTHEAST
TX/SOUTHWEST LA.

DISCUSSION...A BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS GENERALLY DROPPED INTO THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.  TO ITS NORTH, HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX AND SOUTHWEST LA.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OF 2-2.3" LIE ACROSS THE REGION PER GPS VALUES.  INFLOW AT 850 HPA
OF 30-40 KTS LIES ACROSS THE AREA PER VAD WIND PROFILES.  HOURLY
RAIN RATES ARE HIGHEST BETWEEN HOUSTON AND GALVESTON TX, IN THE
RANGE OF 2-2.5" AN HOUR.

THE CAM GUIDANCE IS UNIFORMLY TOO FAR NORTH/WEST WITH THE HEAVY
RAIN IN TX/LA.  STILL, A SIGNAL FOR 2-4" REMAINS IN THE REGION,
WHICH COULD FALL QUICKLY.  AVAILABLE MOISTURE SUPPORTS HOURLY RAIN
RATES UP TO 2.5".  RECENT RAP GUIDANCE SHOWS A LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION MOVING UP THE TX COAST THROUGH 22Z, WHICH IF TRUE,
WOULD LEAD TO CONTINUED ISSUES IN THIS REGION.  UNCERTAINTY IS
GREATER THAN NORMAL IN THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IN THIS AREA. 
FLASH FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   30469289 30069193 29579174 29409390 28649573 
            29209583 30229458