MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0635
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
909 AM EST SUN NOV 01 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 011408Z - 012008Z
 
SUMMARY...A RAIN BAND ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX IS SHOWING SOME
ENHANCEMENT OVER AREAS WHICH RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
YESTERDAY.  FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...A TROWAL-LIKE FEATURE IS APPARENT ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY ACROSS EASTERN TX, WITHIN THE PORTION OF THE WARM CONVEYOR
BELT CIRCULATION WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE UPPER LOW IN CENTRAL TX.
 AT 850 HPA, THIS APPEARS AS AN INVERTED TROUGH CUTTING THROUGH
THE HOUSTON TX METROPOLITAN AREA.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REMAIN HIGH, IN THE 1.5-2" RANGE PER RECENT GPS INFORMATION. 
MUCAPES OF 100+ J/KG LIE UPSTREAM NEAR THE TX COAST, WHICH PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS TRENDS ARE TRENDING UPWARDS.  CONVECTION FARTHER INTO
THE GULF DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE INTERCEPTING THE MOISTURE RETURN
ALOFT.

RECENT RAP RUNS SHOW AN AREA OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE LA/TX BORDER BY
19-20Z.  THE CAM GUIDANCE SHOWS MIXED SIGNALS FOR QPF IN THIS
AREA.   THE 00Z ARW, 12Z HRRR, 11Z RAP, 06Z CANADIAN REGIONAL SHOW
A SIGNAL FOR LOCALLY MODERATE/HEAVY RAINFALL IN THIS REGION AND
SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST GRASP HERE, WITH A SIGNAL FOR 1-2" OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  CONSIDERING THE LIMITED THOUGH SLIGHTLY
GROWING INSTABILITY AND THE AMPLE MOISTURE, 1" AN HOUR RAIN RATES
ARE LIKELY THE CEILING FOR THIS RAIN BAND.  THE 06Z SSEO
NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES SUGGEST A 30-50% CHANCE OF REACHING THE
RELATIVELY LOW THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES IN THIS AREA
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  SINCE 8-14" OF RAIN FELL THIS TIME
YESTERDAY ALONG A STRIPE FROM HARRIS THROUGH HARDIN COUNTIES, THIS
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD BE PROBLEMATIC.  WHILE IT IS EXPECTED TO
BE A LONGER DURATION RAIN EVENT THAT SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVER AN AREA
WITH SATURATED SOILS.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   31369473 31309408 29759385 29439448 28929510 
            29879524 30879512