MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0636
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
302 PM EST SUN NOV 01 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN AL, FL PANHANDLE, & SOUTHWEST GA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 012001Z - 020201Z
 
SUMMARY...CONVECTION IS ATTEMPTING TO GAIN INTENSITY AS A SURFACE
LOW APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  WITH HOURLY RAIN
RATES UP TO 2.5", FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...AN ELONGATED FRONTAL WAVE SOUTH OF BOOTHVILLE LA LIES
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF AN UPPER LOW ACROSS EASTERN TX.  WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE IMPULSES NEAR 27.5N 94.5W AND ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL LA THAT ARE LEADING TO A COUPLE DISTINCT CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS: ONE BETWEEN PENSACOLA FL AND BOOTHVILLE LA AND ANOTHER
FADING CLUSTER DEEPER INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.  PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 2-2.4" LIE ACROSS THE REGION PER GPS INFORMATION,
2.5-3.5 SIGMAS ABOVE THE MEAN FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.  MLCAPE OF
1000-2000 J/KG LIES OFFSHORE, WITH THE INSTABILITY POOL MAKING
SLOW PROGRESS TO THE NORTHEAST PER BIHOURLY SPC MESOANALYSIS
TRENDS.  INFLOW AT 850 HPA IS SOUTHWEST AT 25-35 KTS PER VAD WIND
PROFILES, NEAR THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MEAN 850-400 HPA WIND.

THE CAM GUIDANCE SHOWS A MIXED SIGNAL HERE, WITH RECENT RAP/HRRR
RUNS TRENDING LESS IMPRESSED WITH THE POTENTIAL IN THIS AREA. 
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO FAR NORTHWEST.  THE 12Z
SPCWRF/12Z NAM CONEST PATTERNS APPEAR BETTER PLACED BASED ON THE
CURRENT AND EXPECTED LOCATION OF THE INSTABILITY POOL.  THE CAM
GUIDANCE ADVERTISE LOCAL AMOUNTS IN THE 2-4" RANGE, WHICH COULD
FALL QUICKLY AND COMPROMISE THE LOWER GUIDANCE IN AREAS WHERE
HEAVY RAIN FELL LAST NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING.  CELL
MERGERS/TRAINING ARE CONSIDERED THE MAIN HEAVY RAIN CONCERN, AS
THE BAND CURRENTLY EAST OF THE CHANDELEUR ISLAND SHOALS WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN FORWARD PROPAGATION TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST/NORTHEAST AT 35 KTS INTO THE FL PANHANDLE/SOUTHEAST
AL/SOUTHWEST GA MERGING WITH THUNDERSTORMS SHOWING SOME WEAK
TRAINING CHARACTERISTICS ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE.  HOURLY RAIN
RATES UP TO 2.5" ARE POSSIBLE CONSIDERING THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. 
WHILE FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE, THIS APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL
EVENT.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   33038369 32478327 31548346 30688413 30158552 
            30298654 30228841 31338795 32388658 32918542