MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0637
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
139 AM EST MON NOV 02 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SRN/CNTRL ALABAMA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 020637Z - 021230Z
 
SUMMARY...A NARROW LINE OF TRAINING HEAVY RAIN...WITH RATES UP TO
2 IN/HR...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WRN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
ALABAMA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
GIVEN HEAVY RAIN WHICH FELL OVER THE REGION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.

DISCUSSION...INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN AN INCREASING
TREND IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE CNTRL GULF COAST OVER
THE PAST 2 HOURS. THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN AN ELONGATED
FASHION ALONG A COLD FRONT...LOCATED AHEAD OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW
MOVING EAST INTO LOUISIANA. A NARROW RIBBON OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF +2.5 TO
+3.0...EXISTS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT STRETCHING INTO THE SRN
HALF OF ALABAMA.

AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES EAST OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS...THE COLD
FRONT ALSO TRANSLATE EAST WHILE ENCOUNTERING WEAK TO LOCALLY
MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER THE GULF WITH ESTIMATED MUCAPE OF
500-1500 J/KG PER RECENT SPC MESOANALYSIS/RAP FORECASTS. IN
ADDITION...850 MB FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR 09Z TO ROUGHLY
40 KTS AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA WHILE THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A DEPARTING UPPER JET MAX CLIPS THE
REGION. WHILE MEAGER INSTABILITY PRESENTLY INLAND 
MAY INITIALLY LIMIT RAINFALL RATES...THE COMBINATION OF FACTORS
REFERENCED ABOVE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INCREASE RAIN RATES TO NEAR 2
IN/HR WITHIN HEAVIER CORES BETWEEN 09Z TO 12Z...ALL WHILE TRAINING
FROM SSW TO NNE. GIVEN THE 4-7 INCHES OF RAIN WHICH IMPACTED THE
WRN FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO FAR SRN ALABAMA ON SUNDAY...FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS MESSAGE HAS BEEN COORDINATED WITH
SAB...PLEASE SEE THEIR RECENT SPENES FOR ADDITIONAL INFO.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   33398624 33308575 32858539 31928521 30198599 
            29918664 29848739 30048826 30798813 32768699