MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0638
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
734 AM EST MON NOV 02 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SRN/CENTRAL AL...WRN GA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 021233Z - 021530Z
 
SUMMARY...A NARROW LINE OF TRAINING HEAVY RAIN...WITH RATES UP TO
2 IN/HR...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUING MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS
OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH 1530z.  FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE NORTHEAST ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST AL INTO WESTERN GA AS THE AREA OF RAIN MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.  


DISCUSSION...INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN INCREASE IN
AREAL COVERAGE AND COOLING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT THAT TREND CEASED A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO AND
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE STARTED TO WARM.  EVEN SO...CONVECTION
IS STILL PRODUCING UPWARDS OF 2 INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES PER
AREA 88DS...AND THE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE FED DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE BY A 40 KT TO 45 KT LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH 1530Z AND BEYON.  

THUS WE WOULD EXPECT THAT AN AREA OF HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE A NARROW RIBBON OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF +2.5 TO
+3.0...EXISTS JUST AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE
REGION WHILE A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER LA MOVES MAKES ITS WAY
SLOWLY EASTWARD.  AT THE SAME TIME...THE LIKELYHOOD OF FLASH
FLOODING SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK BY THE FACT THAT THE SYSTEM IS
CONTINUING TO BE PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE AND THAT THE CLOUD TOPS
HAVE STARTED TO WARM.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PERTAINING TO SATELLITE IMAGERY...REFER
TO THE SPENES ISSUED BY NESDIS/SAB.

BANN

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   33548277 31708389 29698461 29228583 29788672 
            32588557 33478434