MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0639
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1039 AM EST MON NOV 02 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...FL PANHANDLE/SOUTHEASTERN AL/GA/UPSTATE
SC/SOUTHWESTERN NC... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 021538Z - 021938Z
 
SUMMARY...CONTINUED THREAT FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 

DISCUSSION...THE 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED WELL DEFINED FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TO SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AHEAD OF A
SLOW-MOVING UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MS
VALEY...ENHANCED MOISTURE FLUXES WERE LIFTING OUT OF THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE LATEST GPS DATA
SUGGESTED PWATS ABOVE 2.50 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN FL
PANHANDLE WITH 2 TO 2.25 INCH VALUES UP INTO CENTRAL GA. AN
EVALUATION OF THE 12Z RAOBS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE RAP OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS INDICATED THE MORE BUOYANT AIR RESIDES CLOSER TO THE GULF
COAST. THE 12Z RAOB FROM TLH INDICATED MUCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING
1500 J/KG WHICH THE RECENT RAP CYCLES SEEM TO BE HANDLING
REASONABLY WELL. FARTHER NORTH...THE ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE DRIVEN
LESS BY INSTABILITY AND MORE FROM DYNAMICAL LIFT ALONG THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A POTENT UPPER JET STREAK.

IN THE PAST FEW HOURS...HOURLY RATES HAVE GENERALLY RANGED FROM
0.50 TO 0.75 INCH AN HOUR WITH 2 TO 2.50 INCHES IN 3 HOURS
OBSERVED IN THE ATLANTA METRO AREA. GIVEN FAVORABLE MOISTURE
PROFILES AND DEEP-LAYERED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...EXPECT
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOCUSING ALONG A GENERAL N-S AXIS ACROSS
THE MPD AREA. FARTHER NORTH...OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MAY LOCALLY ENHANCE RAINFALL WHICH COULD
POSE FLASH FLOOD ISSUES. RECENT CAMS SEEM TO AGREE ON THE AXIS OF
HEAVY PRECIPITATION WITH THE LATEST HRRR CENTERING THE ACTION
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN TO CENTRAL GA WITH A SECONDARY MAXIMA ACROSS
UPSTATE SC. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR A FLASH FLOOD RISK CLOSER TO
THE GULF COAST WHERE FFG VALUES ARE MUCH HIGHER THAN THOSE ACROSS
THE INTERIOR LOCALES. WILL RE-ASSESS THE SITUATION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.


RUBIN-OSTER

ATTN...WFO...BMX...CAE...FFC...GSP...MOB...MRX...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   35368250 35268196 34698164 33768228 32218337 
            31058412 29558542 29788678 30838626 31958552 
            33688460 34808380 35148327