MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0642
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
947 AM EST FRI NOV 06 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TX 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 061440Z - 061900Z
 
SUMMARY...HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TX AND NEAR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. INTENSE
RAINFALL RATES LOCALLY MAY FAVOR SOME FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT THAT HAS SETTLED SOUTH DOWN THROUGH
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TX HAS BEEN GRADUALLY SLOWING DOWN BUT
CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH A DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS POOLED ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES. MEANWHILE...AN ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL
JET IS FOCUSED OVERHEAD AND ORIENTED SW/NE FROM THE EASTERN
TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TX AND INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

WHILE THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE OR VORT CENTER EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET...THERE
HAS BEEN SOME COOLING CONVECTIVE TOPS NOTED FROM JUST WEST OF
HONDO TO NEAR UVALDE...AND SOUTHWEST TO THE RIO GRANDE RIVER. THIS
SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE SOME WEAK SMALL SCALE VORT ENERGY HELPING TO
PROVIDE SOME UPTICK IN VERTICAL ASCENT.

THE 00Z ARW AND 00Z NMMB APPEAR TO GENERALLY BE DOING A GOOD JOB
IN DEPICTING THE CURRENT LEVEL OF CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...AND
SUGGEST A CLUSTER OF SLOW-MOVING AND LOCALLY INTENSE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING THROUGH MIDDAY ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL TX NEAR AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL ZONE WHICH IS
FORECAST TO TAKE ON SOME ANAFRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS.

GOES-SOUNDER AND GPS PWATS ARE ON THE ORDER OF 1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES
WHICH WILL FAVOR INTENSE RAINFALL RATES...AND THE ARW/NMMB
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
HEAVIER AMOUNTS THROUGH MIDDAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED
RUNOFF PROBLEMS AND SOME FLASH FLOODING.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   30239797 29869778 29289812 28609886 28049986 
            27850032 27890081 28190091 28520074 29180013 
            29799914 30129850 
A