MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0644
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1226 PM EST SUN NOV 08 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST GA...FL PANHANDLE 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 081725Z - 082230Z
 
SUMMARY...EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINS GRADUALLY MOVING INTO THE FL
PANHANDLE. INTENSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS COOLING
CONVECTIVE TOPS MOVING INTO THE FL PANHANDLE AND ESPECIALLY IN THE
VICINITY OF FRANKLIN COUNTY WHERE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY
INTENSE BAND OF CONVECTION MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST IN OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SOUTH OF MOBILE BAY WHICH IS GRADUALLY LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD AND IS ALLOWING AN EASTWARD EXTENDING WARM FRONT TO
LIFT UP INTO THE FL PANHANDLE REGION. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR
STRONGER INSTABILITY AND A POOL OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO LIFT
NORTH AS WELL.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
DIVERGENT ALOFT...WITH AT LEAST MODERATELY STRONG H25
RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS SETTING UP OVER THE FL
PANHANDLE REGION WHICH SHOULD FAVOR STRONGER DEEP LAYER ASCENT
WHICH SHOULD WORK IN TANDEM WITH INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMICS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

GPS-DERIVED PWATS ARE ALREADY ON THE ORDER OF 2.1 TO 2.2 INCHES
OVER THE FL PANHANDLE...AND WITH STATION KAAF REPORTING ALREADY
RAINFALL RATES APPROACHING 4 INCHES/HR WITHIN A VERY INTENSE
CONVECTIVE BAND. THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS
POSSIBLY APPROACHING 8 INCHES NEAR THE COAST THROUGH 22Z. SOME OF
THESE HEAVY RAINS WILL ATTEMPT TO GET INTO SOUTHWEST GA...BUT
GIVEN A LACK OF INSTABILITY NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...THE RAINFALL
RATES HERE WILL BE LOWER...BUT WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED. FLASH
FLOODING IS LIKELY AT LEAST LOCALLY FOR PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE
WHERE THE RATES WILL BE THE HEAVIEST.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   31088425 31028376 30748351 30228378 29968402 
            29638495 29988554 30768502 
A