MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0662
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
406 AM EST TUE DEC 01 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENT/E TENNESSEE/N ALABAMA/SE KENTUCKY/EXT NW
GEORGIA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 010905Z - 011505Z
 
SUMMARY...LIFTING S/W SHOULD SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF BROAD
MODERATE RAINFALL BAND ALLOWING TOTALS TO NEAR FFG VALUES. 

DISCUSSION...WV LOOP/IR LOOP SHOWS A ROBUST S/W LIFTING NE ACROSS
W KY INTO S IN ATTM WITHIN HIGHLY DIVERGENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW
ALLOWING FOR STRENGTHENING OF THE TRIPLE POINT WHICH INCREASED LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND MST FLUX ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEY...SETTING THE STAGE. AS THE WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST...THE
TRAILING CONVEYOR BELT WILL SLOW ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION AHEAD OF
NEXT WAVE ALLOWING FOR COMPOUNDING TOTALS. 

ADDITIONALLY...WV LOOP SHOWS NOSE OF 130 KT UPPER JET OVER AR/S MO
WHILE... SUBTROPICAL CLOUD STREAK IS A BIT FLATTER ACROSS NE TX TO
N MS.  THIS WILL SUPPORT THE NEXT S/W CURRENTLY NEAR N MS/AL
BOARDER TO INTENSIFY PRODUCING FURTHER ENHANCEMENT OF PVA LEADING
TO STRENGTHENING UVVS.  ADDITIONALLY...LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE OF
MOISTURE STREAMS... ONE OUT OF THE CENTRAL GULF WHILE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER ALOFT...THE CONNECTION WITH THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC
STREAM COMPOUNDS TO LEAD TO A TONGUE OF TPWS IN EXCESS OF 1.5"
ALONG THE MS/AL BORDER INTO CENTRAL TN.  THE BROAD ASCENT AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE SUPPORTS RAIN RATES IN THE .3-.6"/HR RANGE PER
SURFACE OBS AND RADAR ESTIMATION.  WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE
WAVE DUE TO UPSTREAM JET DYNAMICS... SLIGHTLY HIGHER RATES MAY BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 4-6 HRS AS IT LIFTS INTO CENTRAL TN.   THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BROAD AREA OF 1-1.5" RAIN TOTALS IN THE NEXT
6HRS WITH SOME LOCALIZED AREAS UP TO 2.0" WHICH SHOULD INUNDATE
RIVERS AND STREAMS FOR FLOODING CONDITIONS WITH A POSSIBILITY OF
FLASHY CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN HIGHLY LOCALIZED AREAS.  THIS
SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY MUCH OF THE HI-RES CAMS BUT PARTICULARLY
FAVOR THE ARW AND NMMB SOLUTIONS. 


GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...JKL...LMK...MRX...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   37038464 36748378 35678416 34958536 34238700 
            34398800 34778804 35288764 36718591