MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0682
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
511 AM EST THU DEC 17 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...OR 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL 
 
VALID 171011Z - 171600Z
 
SUMMARY...A MOISTURE PLUME AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL BRING INCREASINGLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE OR COAST TOWARD 17/15Z.

DISCUSSION...A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME (WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
IN EXCESS OF 1.50 INCHES...PERHAPS EVEN APPROACHING 2.00 INCHES
PER THE LATEST BLENDED TPW IMAGERY...AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE
NEAR 45N/133W IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE OR COAST BETWEEN 17/12Z AND
17/15Z. A 0755Z POES-NPOESS PASS SHOWED HOURLY RAINFALL RATES
AROUND 0.25 INCHES WAS APPROACHING THE ORE COAST. 

AS THE SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTH AND EAST...A 35 TO 45
KNOT LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AT H85 WILL FOCUS THE DEEPENING
MOISTURE ON THE OR COASTAL RANGES DURING THE MORNING.  THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS STILL POINT TO RAINFALL RATES RAMPING UP TO 0.50
INCHES OR SO AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEPEST MOISTURE DRAWS
CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST.  

RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH 17/17Z SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.50
INCHES...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS APPROACHING
2 INCHES.  THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO OCCUR ALONG THE WEST
FACE OF THE OR COASTAL RANG WITH LESSER QPF AMOUNTS (CLOSER TO
1.50 INCHES) OVER THE OR CASCADE RANGE.

BANN

ATTN...WFO...MFR...PQR...

ATTN...RFC...NWRFC...

LAT...LON   46172373 45352311 44232292 43072315 42262381 
            42422477 44392458 45592446