MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0690
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
443 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST AL...WESTERN GA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 240930Z - 241400Z
 
SUMMARY...PERSISTENT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO LOCALLY TRAIN
OVER THE SAME THIS MORNING WHICH WILL PROMOTE ADDITIONAL CONCERNS
FOR FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SW/NE AXIS OF
COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS PERSISTING OVER SOUTHEAST AL AND INTO
PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN GA. THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE
EMBEDDED WITHIN A DIVERGENT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WHICH IS BEING
FACILITATED BY THE LEFT-EXIT REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET
CROSSING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ORIENTED NORTHEAST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN. ADDITIONALLY THERE IS A SOMEWHAT
CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN FOCUSED OVER SOUTHEAST AL IN
PARTICULAR WHICH HAS BEEN HELPING TO SUPPORT THE LINEAR SW/NE
ORIENTED BANDS.

MEANWHILE...THE AIRMASS REMAINS VERY MOIST AND MODESTLY UNSTABLE
WITH PWATS AS HIGH AS 1.75 INCHES AS GPS-DERIVED DATA. DUAL-POL
RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE RAINFALL RATES AS HIGH AS 1.5
INCHES/HR...AND ALREADY THERE HAS BEEN SEVERAL INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL LOCALLY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WHICH INCLUDES
A REPORT IN COFFEE COUNTY OF 5.44 INCHES IN 3 HOURS.

THE CAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A FAVORABLE SET-UP FOR
ADDITIONAL TRAINING CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH THE
00Z ARW IN PARTICULAR SUGGESTING HEAVY RAINS PERSISTING WELL PAST
12Z. EXPECT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES LOCALLY THROUGH
MID-MORNING WITH SOME ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS POSSIBLE.

ANY ADDITIONAL RAINS AT THIS POINT WILL EXACERBATE OR PROMOTE
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS AND/OR RUNOFF PROBLEMS GIVEN THE
RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. 

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   33148458 32958412 32498418 31848449 31158498 
            30988566 30998640 31118696 31478710 32398609 
            33028514