MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0704
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1111 AM EST SAT DEC 26 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENT/E OKLAHOMA...SW MISSOURI...NW ARKANSAS...EXT
N CENT TEXAS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 261610Z - 262210Z
 
SUMMARY...INITIAL HEAVY RAINFALL AS FRONTAL ZONES CONSOLIDATE WITH
BACKBUILDING AND TRAINING EMERGING FROM THE WARM SECTOR ALONG THE
COLD FRONT.  

DISCUSSION...INITIALLY VERY COMPLEX AND MESSY SETUP AT THE SURFACE
WITHIN A VERY CONDUCIVE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT WITH
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD ANOMALOUS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND FLUX. 

A SURFACE WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AR IS ADVANCING NORTHWESTWARD
INTO THE OZARKS WHILE REMAINING DRAPED ACROSS THE RED RIVER BEFORE
CONNECTING WITH THE ESTABILISHING COLD FRONT ACRSOS CENTRAL OK
BACK ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TOWARD THE SOUTH CAP ROCK/PACOS
RIVER VALLEY.   NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY A MODIFIED MILD SECTOR
EXISTS ACROSS E OK/NW AR AND S MO...THE STRONG BUT BROAD LOW LEVEL
FLOW OF 45-50KTS AT 850MB IS TRANSPORTING 1.25-1.5" TPWS AND WARM
LAYER FOR AN ELEVATED INSTABILTY POCKET WITH MUCAPES IN AOA 1000
J/KG.  

RECENT RADAR MOSAIC AND VIS/IR AND LIGHTNING NETWORK SHOWS A
STEADY INCREASE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG BEST
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES...PARTICUARLY THE COLD
FRONT/OCCLUDED FRONT FROM SPS TO OKC TOWARD TUL...DEEP NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT NEAR THE
TRIPLE POINT EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NE OK WILL PROMOTE
TRAINING CELLS WITH VERY LITTLE EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT GIVEN
PERSISTENT HEIGHT FALLS TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH THE
EJECTING UPPER LOW.  

ADDITIONAL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WARM FRONT AS IT SHIFTS
NORTHWEST WILL FOCUS CELSL THAT WILL GENERALLY MOVE NORTHEAST AS
WELL BUT CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP UPSTREAM UNDER SIMILIAR
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THESE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT REGIONS
SHOULD BEGIN TO MERGE/CONSOLIDATE WITH THE SW-NE AXIS OF SHOWERS
DESCRIBED ACROSS E OK BY 21-22Z...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL THREAT OF
RATES/TOTALS TO EXCEDE FFG VALUES. 

HRRR/ESRL EXP HRRR AND 00Z ARW HI-RES CAMS APPEAR TO REPRESENT
THIS EVOLUTION VERY WELL WITH 6-HR TOTALS OF 2.5-3.5" IN THE
TRAINING AXIS NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OK... WHILE
THE ARW LOOKS TO BE HANDLING THE CONVECTION LIFTING NORTH OVER E
OK AND MERGING WITH THE AXIS ACROSS NE OK VERY WELL WITH ENAHANCED
TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 3" HERE AS WELL...INTIALLY SETTING THE STAGE
FOR MORE HEAVY RAINFALL OF THE WELL ADVERTISED EXTREME TOTALS
WITHIN THE WPC HIGH RISK AREA.

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   37229396 36549296 35749358 34989426 34859504 
            34759561 34289700 33779801 33439872 34139871 
            36399609 37119474