MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0711
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
849 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SE INDIANA...SW OHIO...N KENTUCKY 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 271347Z - 271847Z
 
SUMMARY...NORTHERN EXTENT OF DEEP MOISTURE NOSING INTO ZONE OF
REDUCED FFG...FOR POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...WV/RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES A SUBTLE S/W LIFTING ACROSS
N IN/OH ATTM. WITH ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM RIDGING MOVING IN.  ALSO
INDICATED IS WEAK QLCS ACROSS SE IN PRESSING EASTWARD...THOUGH
WITH S/W MOVING NE...THE SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION OF THE LINE SHOULD
FLATTEN A BIT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH SOME INCREASED
CAPABILITY OF SOME INCREASED TRAINING OR INCREASED DURATION OF
MODERATE RAINS POST CONVECTIVE LINE.  RAP ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPES IN THE 250-400 J/KG RANGE AT
THE NOSE OF THE MOISTURE PLUME NEAR THE KSGF AREA
ATTM...CONICIDENT WITH TPW PLUME IN THE 1.3-1.4" RANGE...ONGOING
CONVECTINVE CELLS SHOULD STILL SUPPORT .5-.75"/HR RATES.  THOUGH
NOT DRAMATIC GIVEN LARGE AREA OF 3HR FFG BELOW 1.0" ACORSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA WILL LIKELY BE ECLIPSED FOR SOME LOCALIZED FF
CONCERNS PARTICULARLY IN PRONE AREAS.  

THE HI-RES CAMS THAT ARE SUGGESTIVE OF INCREASED TOTALS SUCH AS
THE ARW AND NMMB WHICH HAVE BEEN PERFORMING WELL...APPEAR TO HAVE
THE AXIS AT SHADE NORTH AND EAST...WHILE OTHER HI-RES MODELS SUCH
AS THE ESRL HRRR/GEM REGIONAL ARE A BIT LESS IN TOTALS BUT LOOK A
BIT BETTER IN AXIS.  

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...JKL...LMK...PAH...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   39608254 39098251 38158282 37898409 37648469 
            37398560 37168639 37198696 37618692 38018672 
            38238644 38778571 39268464