MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0713
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
352 PM EST SUN DEC 27 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SW MISSOURI...W ARKANSAS...E OKLAHOMA...NE
TEXAS...W LOUISIANA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 272100Z - 280300Z
 
SUMMARY...SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING TO CONTINUE WITH ADDITIONAL
2-5" TOTALS OVER THE NEXT 6 HRS.

DISCUSSION...WV LOOP SHOWS UPPER LOW IS BEGINNING TO ADVANCE A BIT
FURTHER EAST WITH NEGATIVE TILT OF THE HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING
ACROSS CENTRAL TX AT THIS TIME.  CURRENTLY A N-S ORIENTED COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM JUST WEST OF HOUSTON METRO TOWARD DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW NEAR GGG/TYR. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND RAP ANALYSIS
ALSO INDICATES THAT JET AXIS/ENERGY IS ALSO STARTING TO WRAP
AROUND THE NEG. TILTED BASE WITH 90KT LEFT ENTRANCE SITUATED
ACROSS NE TX INTO OK... WHILE DISTANT RIGHT ENTRANCE DYNAMIC OVER
MO/IL SUPPORTS CONTINUED UVV INTO THE NORTHWARD EXPANDING TROWAL
OVER E OK/NW AR INTO SW MO.  WITH THE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE
BASE..SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BACK ACROSS CENT/S TX AND
INCREASING FORWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COLD
WHILE CONCURRENTLY DEEPENING THE SURFACE LOW ALLOWING FOR IT ACT
AS A PIVOT POINT AND CONFLUENCE ZONE ACROSS SE OK/SW AR (OUACHITA
MTN RANGE)...WHICH IS REFLECTED WELL IN RECENT RAP BOUNDARY LAYER
MST CONVERGENCE FIELDS.  NEAR 3+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF MOISTURE
AND MST FLUX INTO THIS REGION ON 50-60 KT LLJ TRANSPORTING
1.75-2.0" TPWS ALONG WITH CONTINUED SKINNY PROFILES FOR 1000-1500
J/KG OF SBCAPES TO MAIN SUPPORT OF CONVECTION ALONG FRONTAL ZONE
WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY ISENTROPICALLY LIFTING IT ACROSS THE SAGGED
COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AR THAT CONNECTS TO THE LOW.

THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION CAPABLE OF UP TO 1.5"/HR
LEADING TO AN ADDITIONAL 3-5" 6HR TOTALS ACROSS E TX INTO THE
TRIPLE POINT LOCATION IN SE OK/W AR.  THIS WILL COMPOUND ONTO THE
3-4" TOTALS SEEN OVER THE OUACHITA MOUNTAINS IN THE LAST 6HRS AS
WELL...LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING. 
OVERALL THIS SCENARIO IS WELL SUPPORTED IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE
PARTICULARLY THE RECENT HRRR AND ESRL EXP HRRR...GEM
REGIONAL...ARW AND NMMB.  

FURTHER NORTH...WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE
FRONT WITHIN INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS NE
OK/SW MO/NW AR... ADDITIONAL 1-2" TOTALS WITHIN THE WELL DEFINED
AND EXPANDING TROWAL...WILL ALSO COMPOUND ONGOING FLOODING
SITUATION ACROSS THIS REGION AS WELL. 

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...LCH...LZK...OUN...SGF...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   37579267 37259228 36609232 35929273 35409258 
            34949166 34249168 33959267 33469307 32469329 
            30969385 30489408 29979531 30059626 30449629 
            31769607 33199634 34499672 35429601 35839555 
            36399508 36749487 37179440 37499359