MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0025
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
325 PM EST TUE FEB 02 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...MS...FAR WESTERN AL...WESTERN TN...SOUTHWESTERN
KY... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 022024Z - 030224Z
 
SUMMARY...CONVECTION QUICKLY BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED AMIDST
SURFACE INSOLATION AND APPROACHING HEIGHT FALLS. UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW WILL FAVOR A PERIOD OF TRAINING BEFORE THE ACTIVITY
CONSOLIDATES INTO MORE OF AN MCS. IN SPITE OF THE HIGH FFG
VALUES...EXPECT A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WHERE SUFFICIENT
TRAINING OCCURS. 

DISCUSSION...IN ADVANCE OF A ROBUST UPPER CIRCULATION SPINNING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...A BROAD WARM SECTOR HAS SET UP OVER MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. UP INTO THE TN/LOWER OH VALLEY. THIS
WARM/MOIST SECTOR HAS BEEN CHARACTERIZED BY DEW POINTS IN THE 60S
WITH STRONG ASCENT VIA SURFACE HEATING IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS. ANY REMAINING INHIBITION HAS
BEEN ERODED PER 18Z SPECIAL RAOBS WITH INFLOW AIR CONTAINING 1000
TO 1500 J/KG MUCAPES. WHILE THE INITIAL STORM MODE WILL BE MORE
SEVERE IN NATURE...NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS HAVE BEEN ALIGNING
ALONG THE MEAN FLOW WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH.

MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE COURTESY OF THE
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW WHICH HAS BEEN IN THE 40 TO 50 KNOT
RANGE MOST RECENTLY. THE 18Z RAOB FROM SLIDELL LA SHOWED A 0.25
INCH INCREASE IN ITS PWAT WHICH RAISES IT TO THE 90TH PERCENTILE
ON THE SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY PAGE. AMPLE MOISTURE COUPLED WITH
STRONG RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET SUPPORT SHOULD LEAD TO A LENGTHY
PERIOD OF SUSTAINABLE CONVECTION.

ALL RECENT CAMS SUPPORT A SSW TO NNE ORIENTED AXIS OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. A RECENT TREND WAS
NOTED IN THE 12Z SOLUTIONS WHICH WAS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS CYCLES.
OVERALL...THE LARGEST INHIBITING FACTOR FOR A BROADER SCALE THREAT
IS THE HIGH FFG VALUES. BUT THE SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE SETUP SEEMS
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN MPD FOR THE REGION.

RUBIN-OSTER

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...LIX...MEG...MOB...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   37038883 36968761 35748749 34138797 32638836 
            31528873 30938963 31179067 32409114 34319059 
            35738984