MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0028
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1034 AM EST WED FEB 03 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN FL PANHANDLE...EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
AL...CENTRAL GA....INTERIOR NC/SC... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 031533Z - 031948Z
 
SUMMARY...IMPRESSIVE TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE COUPLED WITH STRONG
UPPER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION SUPPORT WILL FOCUS HEAVY RAINFALL FROM
THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE INTO UPSTATE NC/SC. HOURLY RAINFALL RATES
HAVE REACHED THE 1-1.50" RANGE WITHIN THE MORE ROBUST CONVECTION.
THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE LINE
WHERE IT APPEARS THE ACTIVITY HAS BEGUN TO BACKBUILD/TRAIN.

DISCUSSION...THE 15Z FRONTAL ANALYSIS INDICATED A SLOW-MOVING COLD
FRONT STRETCHED FROM FAR SOUTHWESTERN NC SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH CENTRAL GA AND TO JUST SOUTH OF PENSACOLA FL. AN
IMPRESSIVE SLUG OF MOISTURE WAS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
THE LAYERED-PW PRODUCT WITH HIGHLY ANOMALOUS PWATS LIFTING ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 1.60" VALUES WERE SEEN IN THE 12Z FFC
SOUNDING WHICH RANKED 2ND HIGHEST ALL-TIME FOR FEB. TWO MOISTURE
SOURCES EMERGE IN THE LAYERED-PW PRODUCT...ONE ACROSS THE TROPICAL
EAST PACIFIC WITH THE OTHER IN THE VICINITY OF CUBA. IN ADDITION
TO THE NEAR-RECORD TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE...AMPLE JET SUPPORT WAS
EVIDENT IN THE 250-MB ANALYSIS WITH STRONG RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
FORCING ANCHORING THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.

AT THIS TIME...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A SOMEWHAT WAVY SQUALL LINE
TRACKING SLOWLY EASTWARD JUST AHEAD OF THE EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT.
HOURLY MESONET DATA SUGGESTED RATES IN THE 1 TO 1.50 INCH RANGE
ALONG THIS LINE. THE MOST PARAMOUNT CONCERNS ARE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF THIS CONVECTION WHERE TRAINING HAS BEEN
NOTED WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT SPARKING IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
UNLIKE MOST OF THE REGION...THIS AREA HAS DECENT INSTABILITY IN
PLACE WITH RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SUPPORTING UP TO 1000 J/KG OF
MUCAPE. TO THE NORTH...UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS UPSTATE NC/SC WILL LEAD
TO ADDITIONAL ISSUES. RECENT LOCAL STORM REPORTS INDICATED SOME
GENERAL FLOODING HAS ALREADY COMMENCED.

MANY OF THE CAMS HAVE BEEN TOO SLOW WITH THE CONVECTION WITH ONLY
THE 00Z HRW-ARW BEING THE MOST RELIABLE. ITS OUTPUT THROUGH 21Z
SHOWS 2-4" OF RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN FL PANHANDLE WITH A
SEPARATE MAXIMA OVER SOUTHERN GA WITH 1.5-2" LIKELY.


RUBIN-OSTER

ATTN...WFO...BMX...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...JAX...MOB...MRX...
RNK...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   36338134 35678099 34198112 33068173 31838265 
            30568416 29428562 29328689 29878741 30418710 
            32298486 33278391 34548297 36148223